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Tropics Watch: Chances increase for late-season development

Tropical depression could from in the Caribbean over the weekend

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ORLANDO, Fla. – After a much-needed break in the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are stirring once again.

As of Thursday, there were two disturbances highlighted for development. One disturbance is located between Puerto Rico and Bermuda.

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The disturbance is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. This area is embedded in a larger moisture plume that is bringing flooding rain to Puerto Rico. A surface low pressure system is expected to break off of the main plume later in the day.

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Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for subtropical development and a subtropical depression could form over the next couple of days as it lifts north or northeast.

Of more concern for land impacts is an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Caribbean. An area of low pressure could form over the weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as it moves west or northwest through the Caribbean sea. A tropical depression could form early next week.

It is too early to tell if Florida will be impacted.

Climatologically speaking, the Caribbean sea, Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast U.S. are the areas where late-season storms are likely to develop.

Where tropical systems typically develop in October and early November.

The next named storms of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season are Lisa and Martin.

Hurricane season ends Dec. 1.


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