ORLANDO, Fla. – We have thankfully quieted things down in the tropics after a hot start to the season. Officially, no new development is expected over the next seven days.
There is a healthy tropical wave entering the Caribbean, but that is not expected to develop. Still, heavy rain can be expected through the Windward Islands and northern South America.
A non-tropical swirl was also evident northeast of Bermuda. This is also not expected to take on tropical characteristics as it drifts into the North Atlantic.
Another tropical wave is emerging off of the coast of Africa. The environment, however is not as conducive as it was when Bret and Cindy formed.
Saharan Dust
After extremely low concentrations to start hurricane season, the dust is making a comeback. This is no doubt one of the reasons that the main development region, the area in between the Lesser Antilles and Cabo Verde Islands, has turned much quieter.
This dust could also enter the U.S. post Independence Day.
Looking long-range
There should be a much-needed quiet stretch in the tropical Atlantic over the next couple of weeks.
Historically, this is one of the quietest periods of the official hurricane season that runs from June through November.
The European extended range ensembles are hinting at an uptick in tropical development during the third week of July. The orange shade inside the blue box indicates a significantly higher percentage than normal for tropical development.
Now, climatologically speaking, .4 storms develop — orange bar in the graphic above — during this time. The ensemble is forecasting 1.1 storms — green bar — during the same period.
For the last week of July, chances increase further.
These ensembles did accurately predict a fast start to the season.
All of this remains to be seen, of course but in the mean time, let’s enjoy the quiet stretch!
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