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Tropics Watch: Quiet for now, but late-month activity possible in the Atlantic

Saharan dust helping to calm tropics after fast start

ORLANDO, Fla. – We have thankfully quieted things down in the tropics after a hot start to the season. Officially, no new development is expected over the next seven days.

There is a healthy tropical wave entering the Caribbean, but that is not expected to develop. Still, heavy rain can be expected through the Windward Islands and northern South America.

A non-tropical swirl was also evident northeast of Bermuda. This is also not expected to take on tropical characteristics as it drifts into the North Atlantic.

Another tropical wave is emerging off of the coast of Africa. The environment, however is not as conducive as it was when Bret and Cindy formed.

Saharan Dust

After extremely low concentrations to start hurricane season, the dust is making a comeback. This is no doubt one of the reasons that the main development region, the area in between the Lesser Antilles and Cabo Verde Islands, has turned much quieter.

Saharan dust

This dust could also enter the U.S. post Independence Day.

Looking long-range

There should be a much-needed quiet stretch in the tropical Atlantic over the next couple of weeks.

Historically, this is one of the quietest periods of the official hurricane season that runs from June through November.

The European extended range ensembles are hinting at an uptick in tropical development during the third week of July. The orange shade inside the blue box indicates a significantly higher percentage than normal for tropical development.

ECMWF ensemble for tropical development. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts

Now, climatologically speaking, .4 storms develop — orange bar in the graphic above — during this time. The ensemble is forecasting 1.1 storms — green bar — during the same period.

For the last week of July, chances increase further.

ECMWF ensemble for tropical development. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts

These ensembles did accurately predict a fast start to the season.

All of this remains to be seen, of course but in the mean time, let’s enjoy the quiet stretch!


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About the Author
Jonathan Kegges headshot

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 and now covers weather on TV and all digital platforms.