ORLANDO, Fla. – November came in on a pretty good note! Notice I didn’t say high note, well, because our temperatures haven’t actually been all that high, which is a spectacular break when looking back on the summer we had here in Central Florida.
It gets even better from there as a matter of fact, with our next big cold blast coming just in time for Veterans Day.
Computer models have actually trended just a little bit colder for the arrival of our next push of substantial polar air from up north. Some of us could be starting our day in the low 30s, and the wind chill helping it feel like the upper 20s in our northern counties!
Definitely some quality fire pit, hot cocoa, holiday type of sweater weather on the horizon for us which I’m ecstatic about personally.
I know not everyone is into the cold weather here in Florida though, so I’ve got good news for you as well if you rock with me through the polar plunge coming next week.
Once we can mix out all that fresh cold air from up north, our sub-seasonal models seem in good agreement we’ll start to see more dominant high pressure and upper ridging take hold of our weather across the southeast.
Sub-seasonal means we’re looking at forecast data on a week-by-week basis versus day-by-day. There are levels to this business, and I like taking a look at all of them. Especially when it comes time to breakdown what the full month ahead could look like!
With high pressure ridging comes warmer temperatures. Climate Prediction Center is also all aboard this prediction, showing us in above average temperatures for the remainder of the month.
In fact, if this trend holds we could be looking at a full reversal back to mild if not even warm temperatures for our Thanksgiving.
I don’t want to lock that in however, being so far out. We seemed to fly through the month of October, so I promise I am by no means trying to rush November along!
Seeing warmer conditions in the south is in perfect alignment with what we anticipate could occur a large bulk of the fall remaining and especially Winter with what’s going on in the tropical Pacific.
La Nina is in command and dominating the oceanic region. This is likely to last until we begin the transition from winter into spring. That’s when things could get interesting for our friends up north as we begin the first tornado season of 2026.
Down here close to home, I am starting to think we’re going to have to rely on our sprinklers far more often going forward. Dry conditions will likely hold steady for much of us, pending the occasional cold front or digging trough that does manage to reach its influence down to us Floridians.
I believe the main reason we’re seeing such a hefty snap of cold weather this early in November is partially due to the impact Melissa had on our jet stream and the ongoing tropical action still occurring in the west Pacific.
And oh yeah! Truthfully, whatever happens in the Pacific even off the coasts of Japan, China, Russia, etc. has direct implications on our weather as it trickles down the pike eastward.
That’s why I’m not fully sold on a warmer-than-normal Thanksgiving, but it’s definitely in play if current conditions hold true.
All-in-all, it appears the first half of November will be fairly chilly, with maybe an occasional rainstorm or two to help bump up our numbers.
Then the second half leading up to December will probably put us back in classic Florida weather with highs in the mid 80s during the day, overnight lows hovering in the 60s, and the staple tropical humidity stuck with us towards Christmas season.