What’s going on, guys?! Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges back with you for another edition of Tropics Watch!
Late Sunday evening Fay, in the middle of nowhere, became the strongest storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season packing winds of 70mph.
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Much weaker now, Fay almost became the first hurricane of the season.
But it didn’t and therefore the streak of no hurricanes in the Atlantic continues?
So are there any contenders to end the streak? Hopefully not, but let’s take a look.
The hurricane center gives a low chance of development to a new wave moving off the coast of Africa. If it gets a name it will stay weak and in the eastern Atlantic.
This is about the time anyway the African wave train shuts down as climatology favors development closer to home in the Gulf and Caribbean.
The overall weather pattern would suggest a higher potential for tropical development in the Gulf or extreme western Caribbean moving into October. Ensembles and individual models were lighting up last week with that potential.
The MJO, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, is expected to pass through the basin in late September and early October.
Essentially the MJO is a bubble of showers and thunderstorms than can enhance or suppress thunderstorm development as it moves through. In this case it would enhance development.
The green area represents where air is rising more than normal.
Through the first week of October, the signal is still there from the European ensembles, however it is much lower than last week.
Obviously, we will watch this, but wind shear is still dominant, especially in the Caribbean.
So the question now becomes...will we see a hurricane in 2026?
It’s never been done in the satellite era (1966).
That would be something to see. And I’m here for it.
Any questions feel free to hit me up at jkegges@wkmg.com
- Jonathan
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
News 6+
If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter! You can also watch the special on June 1st at 8 p.m. by downloading the FREE News 6+ app! You can watch all of the newscasts on here as well. You can download that on your smart T.V. or other streaming devices.
News 6 Weather App
Even if you are outside of Central Florida download this app! This is the best hurricane app on the market and its FREE. As soon as the National Hurricane Center names something, you’re going to know about. It’s a great way to follow the season if you like doing that. Search WKMG in your app store and make sure you find the hurricane one.
YouTube
If you live in Central Florida subscribe to the WKMG/Clickorlando page.
If you love the weather whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!
Clickorlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource no matter where you live.
Alright. I have rambled on enough. Just wanted to make you aware of where you can find trustworthy and in-depth weather content this season.
One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something? Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an e-mail at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on facebook or twitter.
We’re in this together. We have families here too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.
