ORLANDO, Fla. – A robust tropical wave on Friday continues to move across the eastern Atlantic, southwest of the Cabo Verde islands.
Model guidance continues to show the tropical wave struggling to develop in the short- and long-term. Even though most model guidance keeps the wave weak at this time, it is still something to be mindful of because of the expected steering currents next week.
This solution appears to be unlikely as dry and stable air are dominating most of the region that the system would travel through. The system would have to overcome many limiting factors if it were to become as strong as the model suggests.
The European model keeps the disturbance on the weaker side, just sending a tropical moisture surge through the southwest Atlantic rather than a developed storm.
[STORY CONTINUES BELOW]
The American GFS shows slightly more development, but a weak system near the Caribbean and Southwest Atlantic.
[STORY CONTINUES BELOW]
This entity could be near the Caribbean islands by Aug. 9-10.
If -- and it’s a big if -- this system develops, landmasses, including the Caribbean and Southeast U.S. will have to monitor closely as steering currents appear favorable for land interaction.
[STORY CONTINUES BELOW]
The Bermuda high looks to remain in the western Atlantic through mid-to-late August, increasing the chances for land interaction.
A secondary wave is currently emerging off Africa.
The Canadian model is the most aggressive with developing these waves as they move across Atlantic.
[STORY CONTINUES BELOW]
This solution appears to be unlikely as dry and stable air are dominating most of the region that the system would travel through. The system would have to overcome many limiting factors if it were to become as strong as the model suggests.
August marks the start of the Cabo Verde season, when thunderstorm complexes rolling off Africa become more common. These could develop into tropical systems, given a favorable environment.
The next named storm will be called Emily.
Hurricane season ends Dec. 1.