ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center has highlighted the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico for the possibility of tropical development in the coming days.
A cluster of thunderstorms on the Pacific side of Central America has the potential for gradual development as it crosses into the Caribbean over the weekend. A tropical depression could form as it moves slowly northward.
The NHC gives the disturbance a 60% chance of development over the next seven days.
What we know
It appears likely at the very least tropical moisture will surge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatán Peninsula.
At the same time, a cold front will make its way toward the Deep South early next week. That will help to draw the moisture northward and force it to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Models have gone back and forth, however, on whether an actual storm will develop in this region. The European model continues to be more aggressive than the GFS, but at this point, the models don’t show the storm becoming very strong.
The American GFS simply has tropical moisture headed toward Florida.
It appears that if a storm were to develop it would have to battle strong wind shear, which helps to limit tropical development.
The model above shows strong shear across the Gulf of Mexico as any potential storm would lift north. If the storm beat out that shear, more shear would be introduced to the northern side of the storm, courtesy of the approaching cold front.
This front would act to keep any storm in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.
Water temperatures are record-hot across parts of the eastern Gulf, so any disturbance that emerges from Central America would have to be watched closely.
The best models to look at in this stage of the game, before a storm actually exists are ensemble, which use different initial atmospheric conditions to help predict a range of outcomes.
Individual model runs will continue to do what they have done to this point, show a storm and then show nothing, or show a storm in one location and then a different location on its next run.
Take those models with a grain of salt at the moment. At this point, all we can do is monitor the environment.
Also, remember to not trust models plastered on social media that don’t contain context. They will struggle mightily in a situation like this.
Atlantic basin update
Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center continues to the highlight two additional tropical waves.
The remnants of Emily have a 70% chance to develop as it drifts into the north Atlantic.
West of the Cabo Verde islands, another tropical wave is moving northwest. While the environment is only marginally conducive, a tropical depression could form by the weekend.
The next named storm will be Idalia.
Hurricane season runs through November.
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