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Severe thunderstorm odds rise before Floridians face upcoming cold outbreak

From strong storms to frigid temps — here we go

ORLANDO, Fla. – Storm Prediction Center has officially blanketed the Central Florida area for a level one risk of severe weather with our approaching cold front slated to come through Monday afternoon.

As you can see, the level one risk for isolated severe weather has expanded to encompass the majority of our viewing area which is much larger than we've seen since the start of "frontal season" (WKMG 2024)

Before the front arrives, you’ll likely notice some pretty hasty changes in the way the air feels around us when you set foot outside Sunday and especially Monday morning.

Low-pressure systems spin counter-clockwise, and that’s what creates our “fronts”.

A front is a fancy weather way to describe the leading edge of a new airmass, whether it be cold or warm. In our case, before the cold air arrives we will be within the warm sector. This will help pull warm, moist tropical air from the south right over the peninsula and further north.

Winter storm Blair has started to develop over the plains, ripping the cold, arctic air straight from Canada and dragging it across the rest of the country including Florida (WKMG 2024)

Now, with as much dense, arctic air trailing behind the cold front this is the perfect pairing to create a good shot of instability. With dew points rising, and air temperatures going up, before clashing head-to-head with a brand new airmass introduced out of Canada across a place like Florida is likely why SPC is not pulling any punches.

Rain chances will still remain at 30 percent, however. Remember, the chances for rain do not mean how long or how much total rain our area will see, but rather how much of us could receive it. Since our front will swing across our neighborhood as a thin band of showers and isolated storms, the overall amount of the state covered by that rain will be fairly small.

It’s right along that line where the chance for stronger storms could occur. The warmer temperatures out ahead, alongside just how much “umph” the front will have as it pushes down could stir the pot some creating those localized bouts of stronger, more organized individual cells.

Here is a breakdown of timing for your weather awareness as we prepare to ride out the arrival of our artic front during your Monday (WKMG 2024)

The rain should start coming into our viewing area by about the noon hour. From there, the front will likely be positioned across the Florida peninsula by 2 p.m. and exiting our area entirely just after sunset around 7 p.m., or 8 p.m. the latest you’ll be feeling any effects if you reside along the east coast, particularly Brevard County.

You’ll know it’s coming not only thanks to the warmer air but how fast the air will be moving.

Winds will pick up substantially before and immediately after the passing of our cold front and the intro to the frigid air. As a result, the WIND CHILL is what we Floridians need to be prepared for.

The wind chill will be the greatest issue faced by Floridians after the front arrives and continues south across our area (WKMG 2024)

Actual air temperatures should only tank to about low to mid-30s during the coldest points of the morning which is not atypical for Central Florida. But winds should remain anywhere between 15 to 20 mph, gusting even higher at times, which will make the temps FEEL below freezing especially if you reside north of Orlando.

Once we’re wrapped up dealing with the leading edge of the cold air bringing rain and storms, it would behoove you to make sure you stack your vitamins, and minerals, and layer up to prepare accordingly for the wind chill ahead once the temps drop and winds go up.