ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Melissa continues to fight against strong wind shear in the Caribbean, but conditions are expected to become much more favorable for development this weekend. The storm could strengthen rapidly and may become a major hurricane by late weekend or early next week.
While the threat to Florida remains low right now, this system should still be watched closely as it moves slowly through the region.
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Current Situation
Melissa is struggling under strong westerly wind shear, which has tilted the storm and caused its center to become disorganized.
Air Force reconnaissance data shows the system lopsided and less efficient at strengthening for now.
The storm has been moving slowly and erratically across the central Caribbean, drifting toward the Northwest.
Track and Timing
By late Friday, high pressure is forecast to build to the north, which should cause the system to turn west through the weekend (south of Jamaica).
Early next week, a big dig in the jet stream over the eastern U.S, should help steer Melissa north and eventually northeast, away from the western Caribbean and toward the open Atlantic.
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However, because of a complex steering setup and uncertainty in how organized Melissa becomes, the exact track remains somewhat uncertain.
Confidence is high that impacts will be felt from Haiti, Jamaica and eastern Cuba through early next week.
Strength and Intensification
Once the shearing weakens, Melissa is expected to strengthen quickly, with rapid intensification likely over the weekend and into early next week.
If this happens, Melissa could become a major hurricane by that time.
As the storm intensifies, its wind field will expand and become more symmetrical, meaning impacts could extend farther from the center.
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