Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, and continues southwestward to 05.5N17.5W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N32W to near 02N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03S to 02N between 28.5W and 36W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida southwestward to the Yucatan Peninsula and to extreme southern Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure is building across the area behind the front. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the Bay of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf with seas of 8 to 10 ft. For the rest of the Gulf, gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail with light to moderate seas.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds and rough seas will continue in the Bay of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf through this evening, in the wake of a front that has stalled over the northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds and moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin Wed afternoon ahead of a cold front moving through the southern United States. The front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by Thu morning, with winds turning to the N and weakening in the wake of the front. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as weak high pressure prevails over the basin.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front is analyzed from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is found along the stationary front. The pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in northern South America and in the south-central and southwestern Caribbean generally allows for moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft to exist east of about 79W. Light to gentle winds, along with seas of 2 to 5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds and moderate seas will prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean today. Widespread fresh trades and rough seas are expected to develop over this region on Wed as a tightening pressure gradient develops between the Colombian low, a stalling front in the northwest basin and building high pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds will pulse to strong speeds offshore of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela nightly through this weekend, and winds may reach near-gale force at times. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trades will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the passages into this weekend. Locally rough seas in E swell in this region will subside through today, with a new E swell supporting rough seas Wed through this weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front is dissipating. This front extends southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of the area near 34.5N58W to 31N59W to 27N69W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are depicted along the dissipating front. A stronger cold front extends from near 31N63W to 26N74W, where it becomes stationary to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong southwest winds are ahead of both fronts, while similar wind speeds from the northwest are behind the stronger front. These winds are occurring roughly north of about 27N between 31W and 70W. In addition, an area of near-gale force SW winds is found north of 30N between 53W and 61W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with these winds. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high center near 25N41W is dominating the Atlantic north of 23N between 35W and the Greater Antilles, with gentle to moderate clockwise winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft in moderate to large northerly swells. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft seas are present. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft seas are present over the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from south of Bermuda through the central Bahamas will progress eastward through the central Atlantic this week. Strong to locally near-gale force SW winds and rough seas will occur north of 27N and east of 65W ahead of the cold front through late tonight, with widespread fresh to strong W to NW winds expected in the wake of the front north of 29N and east of 70W. Winds will subside from west to east tonight into early Wed. NW swell associated with this front will expand southeastward over the northwestern tropical Atlantic through Wed, supporting rough seas north of 26N by late tonight, and north of 25N by Wed afternoon. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible north of 30N and east of 70W today into Wed afternoon. Seas will slowly subside from west to east through late week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas may develop offshore northern Florida by Wed evening, ahead of a cold front moving over the southern United States. The cold front is slated to push offshore early Thu, with fresh NW winds and rough seas expected in the wake of the front.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv