Special Feature

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N78W to near Pompano Beach, Florida. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed S to SW winds to 40 kt ahead of the front, with strong to near-gale force winds within 300 nm ahead of the front, north of 27N. Rough seas are also ongoing in the same area, and following the front west of 78W. The cold front will reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to west-central Cuba by early this afternoon, at which time these winds are expected to shift north of 31N.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis remains over the African continent at this time. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 02S30W to 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 03N to 07N between 13W and 18W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from southwest Florida near Chokoloskee to 24N87W. Moderate N winds, 4 to 6 ft seas, and cloudy skies follow the front over the northeast and north-central Gulf. Gentle breezes, slight seas and fair skies prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin this afternoon. Moderate northerly winds over the NE Gulf behind the front will diminish by Tue morning as a surface ridge begins to slide eastward across the area. However, the pressure gradient will tighten over the western half of the Gulf on Tue as a very broad area of low pressure deepens over the NW CONUS. This will result on the development of southerly moderate to fresh winds that will expand to the eastern half of the basin Thu morning ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Sat.

Caribbean Sea

A few thunderstorms are active near a weak 1016 mb low pressure area east of Grand Cayman Island. Farther south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off eastern Panama. This is due in part to convergence of fresh trade winds off Colombia, where seas to 8 ft are possible. Moderate winds and seas are evident elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle breezes and slight seas over the northeast Caribbean.

For the forecast, pulsing strong northeast winds will prevail offshore Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela and southern Panama through Fri night. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Fresh NE winds will develop in the Windward Passage and in the lee side of Cuba Tue through Wed evening as high pressure come off the Carolinas and then moves eastward towards the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and will continue through Fri night. Otherwise, trade winds will reach moderate to fresh speeds over the E Caribbean Thu and Fri as high pressure builds over the central subtropical Atlantic waters.

Atlantic Ocean

A Gale Warning is in effect northeast of the northern Bahamas for this morning. Please refer to the Special Feature section above for more details.

In addition the situation described in the Special Features section about conditions near the cold front, a second front is evident farther east from 31N40W to 23N50W, then is a stationary front to the northern Leeward Islands. 1025 mb high pressure is centered between the fronts near 30N55W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted along and within 90 nm of the easternmost front, with gentle breezes and 4 to 5 ft seas elsewhere west of the front. Elsewhere moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas with a component of NE to E swell persists.

For the forecast west of 55W outside of the Gale Warning area, the front will reach from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba tonight, then from near 31N58W to 24N65W and stationary to South Florida Tue. The cold front portion will move E of 55W late Tue while the stationary portion weakens, with frontal remnants lifting back N as a warm front Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front through late tonight. Rough seas will linger elsewhere E of 60W through Thu.

Posted 14 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen