Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas tonight into Mon. Winds will reach gale force ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the U.S. Coast late Mon afternoon. The front will extend from near 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N55W to SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue night. Strong to minimal gale force winds will also follow the front N of 29N. A significant swell event with very rough seas is expected in the wake of the front, affecting mainly the waters N of 29N on Tue, and propagating across the area N of 27N and E of 70W on Wed. Peak winds should reach around 40 kt and peak seas around 20 ft. Gale conditions associated with this front are forecast to end by Tue night.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the west-central and SW parts of the Gulf in association with the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region this evening. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is ahead of the front over the western half of the Gulf. These winds will extend to the NE Gulf today. Fresh to strong NW to N winds, with frequent gusts to gale force and rough seas will follow the front, forecast to reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Mon morning, and from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico by Mon evening. Gale conditions are expected over the west-central waters early on Mon, and in the Veracruz area by Mon afternoon. Peak winds should be around 35 kt, with higher gusts, and peak seas around 12 ft. The front will exit the basin on Mon night. High pressure will build in the wake of the front producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long period NW swell with a period of 16-17 seconds continues to propagate across the central Atlantic in the wake of a cold front that currently extends from 31N50W to 20N73W, at the mouth of the Windward Passage. Drifting and moored buoys within the area of swell continue to support an analysis of 20 ft peak seas along 31N. Seas in excess of 12 ft are north of 25N and west of the frontal boundary to 70W. The swell train will continue to propagate across the forecast waters between 30W and 70W today, and E of 65W on Mon. Seas in excess of 8 ft will dominate most of the Atlantic forecast waters N of 20N through at least Mon.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the above SPECIAL FEATURES.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N25W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of the ITCZ to 04N between 36W and 44W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A Gale Warning has been issued for the west-central and SW parts of the Gulf. Please, read the Special Features section for more details.

Strong ridging due to high pressure over the SE United States remains in force. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure system over Texas and NE Mexico supports fresh to strong southerly winds over the western half of the Gulf with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Satellite scatterometer data that just arrived indicates wind speeds may locally peak to near gale force speeds. SW winds, also moderate to fresh, prevails across the E Gulf waters, including the Straits of Florida. Seas are 5-7 ft in these regions.

For the forecast, refer to the Special Features section. Looking ahead, a trough will develop over the western Gulf on Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis. A low may develop along the trough axis over the NW Gulf by Thu bringing increasing winds and seas.

Caribbean Sea

This morning's satellite scatterometer data captured strong to near gale force NE winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola from 15N to 18N between 70W and 75W. Seas are 7-9 ft in the lee of Cuba, and 7-10 ft south of Hispaniola, as a result of these persistent winds. Moderate to fresh trades are analyzed in the remaining Caribbean waters, with 4-7 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW Caribbean from 10N to 15N between 76W and 81W. Scattered moderate convection is also along the coasts of Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area will support fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage through this evening. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the central Caribbean, and parts of the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage, through at least Mon. These winds will diminish Mon night into Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean early on Tue. The front is forecast to reach from central Cuba to Belize by Tue evening, and from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning before dissipating Wed night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean through Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special features section for details about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a Significant Swell Event.

The cold front mentioned in the SIGNIFICANT SWELL SPECIAL FEATURE extends from from 31N50W to 20N73W, at the mouth of the Windward Passage. Outside of areas impacted by the SPECIAL FEATURES, 1023 mb high pressure just west of the Canary Islands provides for gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Looking ahead, a reinforcing cold front may bring another round a gale force winds to the offshore waters N of 29N by Thu night into Fri.

Posted 1 hour, 50 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney