Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W, then transitions to the ITCZ near 06N19W. The ITCZ continues westward to 05N30W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 07N between 10W and 13W, and near 06N21W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A trough persists over the western Gulf of Mexico and extends from a 1018 mb low pressure located near 24N96W to the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near the trough axis. Recent scatterometer satellite pass indicates fresh to strong winds across the southeast and south-central Gulf. These winds are along the southern periphery of a very strong high pressure of 1040 mb located over the SE of the United States. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the NW Gulf, and south of 25N E of 92W, with seas to 8 ft near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 5 ft. As of 1500 UTC, a cold front is entering the northern Gulf waters.

For the forecast, high pressure building in over the southeastern United States will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds over the S Gulf through tonight. Fresh to strong SE return flow will set up in the western Gulf through Wed, accompanied by rough seas numerous showers and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf coast Thu, then stall over the northern Gulf for the end of the week.

Caribbean Sea

Satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong NE winds over the northwestern Caribbean and across the Windward Passage, between strong high pressure well north of the region, and lower pressure over Colombia. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also noted off Colombia, and the convergence of these winds are supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough off Panama and Costa Rica, and also across the offshore waters of Nicaragua. Moderate to rough seas are evident across the northwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas over most of the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage through Wed night. The high pressure will weaken and shift eastward Thu, allowing winds and seas to diminish, although fresh to strong NE winds will persist south of Cuba and near Cayman Islands into Sat. Farther south, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will pulse off Colombia into Sat. NE swell will lead to seas of 8 to 10 ft for Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles into Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

A series of cold fronts continue to move across the western Atlantic while the remainder of the forecast area remains under the influence of a 1033 mb high pressure located near the Azores. This pattern is supporting mostly fresh to strong NE to E winds to the east of 60W along with 7 to 10 ft seas based on altimeter data. A cold front extends from 31N65W to the SE Bahamas. A pre- frontal trough stretches from 24N64W to the Mona Passage. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front over Haiti and off the north coast of Hispaniola, and also along the frontal boundary. Farther west, another reinforcing cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are associated with these fronts.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fronts will merge and reach from 31N55W to central Cuba by tonight, from 28N55W to just N of Hispaniola by late Wed, then stall and weaken through Fri. Fresh to strong and rough seas will follow the front south of 22N through mid week. A trough will follow the reinforcing front between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Wed, followed by fresh to strong winds and rough seas in NW swell, north of 28N. High pressure will build across the waters north of 26N Thu, ahead of another cold front off northeast Florida. Looking ahead, the front will reach from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by Fri night, and from 31N55W to central Cuba by late Sat.

Posted 5 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr