Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W from 12N southward, and moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is in a very dry surrounding environment marked by a dense area of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) as seen in the GOES-E dust and GEO color imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection are seen within 30 nm of 05N26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 13N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are evident from 02N to 04N between 46W and 50W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near coastal border of Mauritian and Senegal, then curves southwestward to 06N24W. An ITCZ runs westward from 04N28W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 100 nm north of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

The southeastern end of a cold front reaches southwestward from Great Bahama Bank across the Florida Straits to the northern coast of western Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the northern coast of central Cuba and adjacent Florida Straits. Otherwise, a 1018 mb high at the northwestern Gulf is dominating much of the Gulf with gentle N to NE to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft, except moderate winds near the coast of western Florida, northern Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Texas/northeastern Mexico.

For the forecast, a weak cold front is forecast to enter the northeastern Gulf tonight and dissipate over the eastern Gulf on Fri. SE winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh over the western half of the basin this weekend and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the western extension of Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in west Texas.

Caribbean Sea

Tight gradient between a strong ridge at the western Atlantic near 23N and lower pressure over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft at the south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia will persist through Mon. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, except pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Tue. Rough seas in large E swell will continue to impact Atlantic waters near the Lesser Antilles through late Sun, then begin to subside on Mon.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends southwestward from northwest of Bermuda across 31N70W to beyond the Great Bahama Bank. Scattered moderate convection is evident near and up to 250 nm southeast of this boundary, including the northwest and central Bahamas. A weak stationary front near 31N between 46W and 56W is triggering patchy showers north of 30N. Convergent trade winds are producing scattered moderate convection off the coast of Suriname and French Guiana. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found near the cold front, north of 28N between 61W and 70W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to SW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas exist north of 27N between 35W and the northeastern Florida/southern Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted near the Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E trade winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will sink a bit southward, and reach from near 31N69W to 26N72W to the northwest Bahamas Fri. Afterward, it should become a weak stationary front from near 31N62W to 26N70W early on Sat, and then dissipate by late Sat night. High pressure north of the area will shift eastward while it strengthens some. This will cause fresh to strong southerly winds over the central and eastern waters north of 27N through Fri while gradually lifting north of the area.

Posted 1 day, 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan