Special Features

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning along with very rough seas for their AGADIR Marine Zone, through 21/0600 UTC. Please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST and WARNING issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then extends south-southwestward to 03N21W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N21W across 00N30W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and up to 200 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W and 33W, and south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 04N between 10W and 21W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near the Panama-Colombia border.

Gulf Of America

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1026 mb high off the Carolinas coast across northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present across the Florida Straits and off the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are seen at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned high and a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to strong SE winds over the southeastern Gulf early this week, along with moderate to rough seas. Conditions will start to improve across much of the Gulf Tue as the high moves eastward into the central Atlantic, allowing the pressure gradient to decrease. One exception is off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula where pulses of strong winds are expected as a diurnal trough moves into the waters.

Caribbean Sea

A strong 1026 mb high pressure off the Carolinas coast continue to support a robust trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds are persisting across the central basin, Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Seas at the central basin and near the Windward Passage range from 7 to 10 ft, while 4 to 6 ft seas are found at the lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Seas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for weather in the basin.

For the forecast, expect fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western Caribbean through Mon night. As the aforementioned high shifts eastward, decreasing pressure gradient will cause these winds to diminish through late week. Large northerly swell impacting the Mona and Anegada passages will gradually subside through midweek. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will then prevail through the end of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning about gale-force winds at the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough extends southwestward from the central Atlantic across 31N58W to a 1015 mb low pressure near 27N61W, then continues southward to just east of the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed north of 22N and between 55W and 63W. Convergent surface winds are coupling with divergent winds aloft to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gradient between a 1026 mb high off the U.S. Carolinas coast and the aforementioned 1015 mb low is causing fresh to strong N winds and 8 to 10 ft seas north of 26N between the low and 65W. Fresh with locally strong NNE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident from 20N to 26N between the surface trough and the Bahamas. North of 26N between 65W and the Florida/northern Georgia coast, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate. To the east, north of 05N between 35W and 60W/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are noted. Moderate to gentle NE to E winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, anticipate fresh to strong N to ENE winds and rough seas across the western Atlantic, and near the Bahamas and Greater Antilles to continue into Mon. Both the trough and the high pressure will weaken Tue, loosening the pressure gradient should lead to improving conditions through midweek.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan