Hurricanes

Gulf
Atlantic

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 3 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC.

Special Features

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event

Large northerly swell, that is originating in the NE Atlantic Ocean offshore Europe, will enter the far NE Atlantic Ocean on Thursday morning. The sea heights will build to greater than 12 feet, and reach a peak of 19 feet, on Thursday night. The sea heights of 12 feet will be from 20N northward from 45W eastward on Friday evening, before diminishing to less than 12 feet early on Saturday.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N13W, to 03N20W, and to the Equator along 30W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 30W, to the Equator along 32W, to 01S38W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N southward between 10W and 35W.

Gulf Of Mexico

An eastern Gulf of Mexico cold front passes through North Florida, to just to the east of the Florida Big Bend, to 29N85W, 24N87W, through the north central Yucatan Peninsula, into the northern parts of Guatemala. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 24N to 26N between 82W and 85W, from 120 nm to 270 nm to the east of the cold front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, is from 24N to 30N between 74W and 85W. The clouds and the precipitation cover parts of Florida peninsula, the Florida Keys, the Bahamas, and the adjacent waters.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge is covering the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward.

Slight seas are from 22N southward between 90W and 95W, and from 27N southward from 85W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are to the east of the cold front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from the cold front westward.

A slow moving cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend in the northeast Gulf to 26N86W to the central Yucatan Peninsula. Strong thunderstorms will continue along and E of the front overnight. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front across the Gulf, as it moves southeast of the basin Thu. Winds and seas will subside Thu night into Fri as high pressure moves across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, this pattern will also support fresh E to SE winds across the western Gulf through Mon.

Caribbean Sea

An Atlantic Ocean cold front is between 55W and 57W from 20N northward. A surface trough is from 20N57W to 17N63W in the NE Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are to the north and to the northeast of the line that is from SW Haiti to the coast of Venezuela that is along 68W.

Mostly moderate to fresh SE winds are from from 80W westward. Some fresh to strong SE winds are in the Yucatan Channel, and within 120 nm of Honduras between 84W and 86W. Moderate or slower anticyclonic surface wind flow covers the rest of the area. Moderate seas are from 15N northward. Slight seas are elsewhere.

A cold front currently from the SE Gulf of Mexico and into the central Yucatan Peninsula will move southeastward into the Yucatan Channel early Thu, then reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will immediately follow the front across the NW Caribbean Thu and Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish late Fri across NW portions as the front reaches the Windward Passage, then weakens from Hispaniola to the Honduras-Nicaragua border on Sat. High pressure building north of the region in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and across the Windward Passage Fri night through Sat. These winds and seas will diminish late Sat. Moderate N swell is moving through the NE Caribbean Passages and adjacent Tropical Atlantic waters tonight and will gradually subside through late Thu. Strong trade winds and rough seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia and the southern coast of Hispaniola Sat and Sun as the high pressure settles north of the area, and E of the Bahamas.

Atlantic Ocean

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT, in the far NE Atlantic Ocean, for the next few days.

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 30.5N 59.5W. A cold front curves away from the low pressure center, between 55W and 57W from 20N northward. A surface trough is from 20N57W to 17N63W in the NE Caribbean Sea. A second surface trough curves away from the 1009 mb low pressure center, 23N60W 21N66W 22N70W 31N74W. A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 27N64W. Strong SE winds are within 90 nm to the east of the cold front from 25N northward. Fresh to strong southerly winds are elsewhere within 180 nm to the east of the cold front from 20N to 25N. Moderate or slower winds are between the 1010 mb low pressure center and the areas of the comparatively faster winds. Fresh NW winds are between the 1010 mb low pressure center and 74W. Moderate or slower winds are from 74W westward. Broad moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 20N northward from 50W westward. An exception is for moderate seas from the Bahamas southward. Rough seas are from 50W eastward, to the north of the line 14N50W 12N30W 21N17W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Low pressure SE of Bermuda near 29N62W will drift southeast and dissipate through Thu. Large northerly swell dominates the waters W of 60W and will gradually subside through late Thu. An associated cold front extends from 31N59W to 26N55W to the central Lesser Antilles. An area of strong to near-gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered strong thunderstorms remains active to the east of the front, N of 20N. The low pressure and front will gradually shift to the east of 55W Thu through Fri. Farther west, a new cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by early Fri, from 31N55W to the Mona Passage by early Sat, then move east of the area Sun. Strong winds and rough seas will follow this front, then diminish from west to east as high pressure build eastward along roughly 29N in the wake of the front.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Ss