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Hurricanes

BEFORE THE STORM


Gulf
Atlantic

VIDEO FORECAST


Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 1 month, 1 week ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warnings: A cold front extends from from 31N39W to the northern Windward Islands. Gale-force winds are currently north of 28N within 75 nm east of the front. Rough to high seas accompany the front, as described in greater detail below. The front will shift eastward, with winds over the discussion waters diminishing below gale force today.

Another cold front will impact the SW N Atlantic waters this weekend. Winds have increased to gale force over the waters east of northern Florida ahead of the front. The front will move off the coast of Florida today, and rapidly shift across the forecast waters and exit east of the area through Mon. Gale force winds and rough seas will impact the northern waters in the vicinity of the front through Sun. The front will generate a reinforcing set of NW swell over the Atlantic waters, discussed below.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extending from N Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds are off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, with seas peaking near 14 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force early this morning.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large long-period northwest swell with wave periods of 13 to 15 seconds are propagating across the subtropical Atlantic waters. Seas greater than 12 ft associated to this swell cover the waters N of 20N between 31W and 68W. These conditions will propagate eastward across the Atlantic waters, being reinforced by a set of new NW swell as discussed above. Seas are peaking in excess of 20 ft north of 27N between 45W and 59W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are forecast to spread eastward through the weekend.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 04N09W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues for 04N14W to 02N33W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 10W and 22W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning for the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

A cold front extends from N Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Aside from the gale force winds, strong to near gale force winds are over the remainder of the SW Gulf, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere W of the front. E of the front, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail. Seas are in the 11-14 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 8-11 ft elsewhere W of the front. E of the front, seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will move across the eastern Gulf today. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas follow the front, with gale force off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico diminishing early today. These winds and seas will diminish Sun, as the front stalls over the southeast Gulf and dissipates. A reinforcing cold front will move into the Gulf early next week followed by strong winds and rough seas.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-3 ft, are over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, a cold front will move into the far northeast Caribbean today, then stall and dissipate through late tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front across the western Atlantic today. Large, long- period northerly swell will also accompany the front, impacting the Atlantic passages into the northeast Caribbean today, the Atlantic waters east off the Leeward Islands starting tonight, and the waters east of the Windward Islands by early Sun before subsiding into Mon. The pattern will also support moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern and south- central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on gale-force winds over the northern waters through Sun, and on an associated significant swell event impacting a large portion of the central and western waters.

A cold front extends from 31N39W to the northern Windward Islands. Aside from the gale force winds, fresh to near gale winds are noted N of 23N between 30W and 60W. Aside from the gale force winds off northern Florida, fresh to near gale winds are N of the northern Bahamas, and W of 75W. A 1018 mb high is centered near 25N69W, with light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters. Aside from the seas greater than 12 ft, seas of 8 ft or greater cover the waters N of 18N and E of 74W. Elsewhere, seas of 6-7 ft are noted.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near gale force winds over the waters N of 27N and E of 61W will diminish today. Farther west, SW gales and rough seas prevail off northwest Florida ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast today. This front will shift across the forecast waters and exit east of the area through Mon. Gale force winds and rough seas will impact the northern waters in the vicinity of the front through Sun. These winds and seas will diminish as high pressure builds over the basin Sun into Mon. Another front will move into the waters off northeast Florida Tue.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature