Special Features

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts gale-force S or SW winds, veering to W or SW in Madeira from 03/00 UTC through at least 04/00 UTC, and S or SW in Agadir from 03/12 UTC through 03/21 UTC. Rough to very rough seas will likely accompany these winds. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int

Monsoon Trough/Intertropical Convergence Zone

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 11.5N15.5W and extends southwestward to 02N24W. The ITCZ extends from 02N24W to 02S34W to northeast of the coast of Brazil at 01N43.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 08W and 13.5W, and from 01N to 05N between 42W and 49W.

Gulf Of America

The subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic through the northern Gulf of America. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong SE to S winds north of 21N and west of 87W, and moderate to fresh return flow elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 10 ft north of 22N and west of 88W, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is noted over the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will increase to near- gale on Thu west of 85W. These winds will support building rough seas in this region through the end of the week. East of 85W, including the Florida Straits, fresh to strong winds will prevail into the weekend before diminishing. The next front is expected to enter the NW Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near gale winds and rough seas will prevail in the wake of the front on Sun, then diminish early next week.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean, with similar winds near the Gulf of Honduras and east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds are mainly moderate to fresh elsewhere, except weaker to the west of Haiti and in the Caribbean south of 11N or so. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in the Central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 5 to 8 ft in the NW Caribbean west of 85W, and 3 to 6 ft across the remainder of the waters. Other than some isolated showers and thunderstorms, no significant convection is noted over the basin.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale NE winds and rough to very rough seas offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela will prevail through the weekend. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to near-gale force speeds, with rough seas beginning on Thu and continue through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will strengthen with building rough seas dominating the basin Thu into the weekend. Large E swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the Meteo-France area.

The Atlantic basin is dominated by 1026 mb high pressure centered near 32N43W, with the subtropical ridge axis extending westward toward the southeastern United States. A complex low pressure system between the Canary Islands and the Azores is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds north of 29N between 21W and 34W. Associated large seas of 8 to 14 ft cover the waters north of 24N between the Canary Islands and 40W. Moderate to fresh trades with 6 to 9 ft seas prevail across the majority of the waters south of 22N. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are elsewhere, except moderate to fresh winds from the Bahamas to the Greater Antilles and through the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the area. The building high will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas across the waters south of 25N, including through the Atlantic Passages into the Caribbean, into the weekend.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky