Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from near Sarasota, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to gale-force winds behind the cold front. Winds of 35-40 kt are present off southern Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Rough to very rough seas are also occurring behind the front with seas peaking near 18 ft off Tampico. Prolonged gale force winds and significant very rough seas will persist over the western Bay of Campeche through late Tue night. Seas will peak around 20 ft off Veracruz Tue. Conditions will improve from north to south by midweek.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front, stemming from a storm-force low north of the area, enters the discussion waters near 31N35W and then curves southwestward and westward to near 19N58W, where it becomes a stationary front that extends northwestward toward the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the front north of 22N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to near-gale force winds with frequent gusts to gale force are on either side of the front north of 27N between 32W and 51W. Large N swell generated from the storm system is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 21N between 33W and 60W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually subsiding from south to north through the week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W and continues to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 04N35W to 00N50W. A few showers are evident near the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section above regarding gale warnings.

Ahead of the frontal boundary discussed in the Special Features section, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a strong cold front from central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Gulf will shift across the basin through late Tue. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected offshore of Tampico through early tonight, and offshore of Veracruz and the western Bay of Campeche through late Tue. Elsewhere behind the front, widespread strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas are expected. Winds and seas will slowly diminish from north to south Tue into early Wed. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf around midweek, with moderate or weaker winds and slight seas over the basin.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean waters. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north-central and SE Caribbean. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Low-level convergence is producing a few showers in the NW Caribbean, especially off Yucatan.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds will prevail over the central Caribbean into early Wed. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the south-central Caribbean, and may reach near-gale force offshore of Colombia late tonight. Rough seas are expected near and to the west of the strongest winds. Over the Atlantic waters, rough seas in N swell are expected through late Thu before seas subside. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean on Tue, with fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas expected in the wake of the front, including through the Yucatan Channel. The front will weaken and eventually dissipate over the northwestern basin by late week.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section above for details on a gale warning and a significant swell event in the central Atlantic.

Outside of the area in the Special Features section, a cold front extends from 31N77W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to near gale- force are occurring north of 27N and west of 70W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. In the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, a 1019 mb high pressure dominates, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas west of 60W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft south of 15N and west of 30W. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, moderate or lighter winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, very rough seas in N swell will prevail north of 22N and east of 60W will shift east of the area by Tue morning. Widespread rough seas east of 65W will subside from west to east through midweek. A cold front over the NW waters will progress eastward through midweek, with fresh to strong SW winds likely ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong NW winds following the front. Rough seas associated with the front are expected north of 28N, with seas subsiding from west to east Tue through Wed. The next cold front is forecast to move off the SE coast of the United States late this week, with increasing winds and building seas likely near and behind the front.

Posted 1 hour, 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado