Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09.5N13.5W and extends to 04N18.5W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18.5W through 00N29W to the coast of Brazil at 01N46.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen E of 20W from the Equator to the African coast S of 07.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ, S of 04N between 20W and 49W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front continues to move eastward across the NE Gulf, analyzed from near Mexico Beach, FL to near 27.5N90W to the Mexican coast N of Veracruz along 20N at 1800 UTC, with a pre-frontal squall line occurring just ahead of the front and into the Florida Big Bend. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection along and ahead of the squall line is producing SW winds of near-gale to gale-force strength, as confirmed by midday satellite scatterometer data, with fresh to strong SW winds elsewhere N of 25N, ahead of the front to the Florida coast. Seas are 5 to 9 ft in this area. The front continues across the Florida Panhandle and spirals into a 1002 mb low center across eastern Mississippi. W of the front, fresh NW to W winds prevail, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. In the far SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche mainly offshore Veracruz, NW winds are fresh to strong due to enhanced northerly flow behind the cold front and a strengthening pressure gradient with high pressure building over northern Mexico. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE of the area by Mon afternoon, with winds and seas further decreasing. Gale force SW winds over the NE Gulf east of the front will diminish below gale force by this evening, then further diminish through the night. High pres will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail by midweek.

Caribbean Sea

A frontal remnant trough extends across Puerto Rico southwestward into the east-central Caribbean along 70W, while another surface trough also extends from the Windward Passage southward into the central basin along 77W. In between these features, fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail N of 15N, where seas are 6-8 ft. Fresh to strong winds also continue near the coast of Colombia to 15N, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, 1022 mb high pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is supporting moderate to locally fresh E trades and moderate seas, E of 80W, and gentle to moderate SE winds across the NW basin.

For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week, except for light to gentle winds over the NW Caribbean that are expected to strengthen by the end of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic through 31N45W to 24N49W then become stationary to the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. To the west, a frontal remnant trough is analyzed along 25N, to the S of a 1022 mb high near 30N71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the cold front N of 24N between 42W and 47W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the front to 65W. Anticyclonic winds then become fresh easterly winds N of Hispaniola, then fresh to strong SE to S winds through the Bahamas and across the waters E of Florida to 75W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds, except 4 ft or less in the lee of the central Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail north of the trough due to high pressure in the region.

E of the cold front to 35W and N of 26N, fresh to strong S to SW winds prevail, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. E of 35W and N of 10N, fresh to strong trades and rough seas prevail due to an enhanced pressure difference between a 1034 mb high near 36N18W and lower pressures in the deep tropics. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere S of 20N to the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the discussion waters will shift eastward enabling a cold front to move off the SE coast of the U.S. On Monday. Strong S to SW winds will prevail offshore north and central Florida this evening and tonight in advance of the front. The front will shift eastward over the forecast waters, moving east of the area by the middle of the week. Fresh to near gale winds will precede the front N of 29N tonight into Mon, with fresh to strong winds and building seas elsewhere in the vicinity of the front N of 28N. These winds will diminish by the middle of the week, with rough seas lingering E of 60W through Thu.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling