Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: Widespread fresh E trade winds and rough seas will occur across the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean through this weekend as a strong pressure gradient prevails between low pressure over northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds will pulse to gale force each night and early morning through Sun. Very rough seas will occur near and to the west of the highest winds.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from 01N15W to 03S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S to 02N between 30W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from Charlotte Harbor, FL to 24N94W. The remnants of a front extend south from 24N94W through the central Bay of Campeche. North of the front, NE winds are moderate to fresh. South of the front, SE winds are gentle to moderate. In the NW and SW Gulf of America, winds may peak near strong speeds. Seas are 7-10 ft in the SW Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, and 4-7 ft elsewhere in the Gulf of America.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to lift northward through Sat supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds across much of the basin. Winds will increase to strong speeds across the northwestern and north-central Gulf of America by Sat morning as a tightening pressure gradient develops between the front and strengthening low pressure in the central United States. Looking ahead, the next cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Sat into Sun, promoting fresh to strong N winds and rough seas west of 90W. Gale force winds will be possible offshore of Veracruz on Sun behind the front.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the special features section for information regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean offshore of Colombia this morning.

Strong to near gale force trades continue in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas in this area peak to 11 ft. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean, per the latest scatterometer data. Seas are 7-11 ft in the central Caribbean, and 5-7 ft in remaining waters.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force offshore Colombia each night and early morning through Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage through late Sat. Fresh to locally strong winds will occur across the remainder of the central Caribbean, in the Gulf of Venezuela, in the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, in the Gulf of Honduras, and through the Atlantic Passages through Sun. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will occur in the northwestern Caribbean through this weekend. Looking ahead, a decreasing pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high pressure in the western and central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and locally rough seas across the basin into early next week, with locally strong winds occurring offshore of Colombia.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N73W to Port St. Lucie, Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas to 7 ft follow the front. A stalled front is near the Canary Islands in the E Atlantic. 1028 mb high pressure centered near 29N57W dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong trades prevail south of 22N, with moderate or weaker winds north of 22N. Seas are 7-11 ft south of 22N in the strong trades. North of 22N east of 43W, seas are 7-10 ft. North of 22N west of 43W, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected south of 25N, including through the Atlantic Passages into the Caribbean through late tonight, with fresh to locally strong E winds expected into early next week. A long-period E swell will support rough seas in this region. A cold front extending from 31N74W to south-central Florida will progress southeastward today followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas. The cold front will stall along 28N on Sat, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail north of this boundary. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW winds and rough seas will develop west of 70W off the coast of Florida on Sun ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off NE Florida late on Sun. This front is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon afternoon, then drift SE and weaken considerably through Tue.

Posted 1 hour, 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney