Special Features

Atlantic Ocean Swell Event: Long period northerly swell follows a strong cold front that extends from 31N60W to south Florida at 1200 UTC. An altimeter pass indicates seas of 14 to 15 ft offshore Florida. This swell event will continue to propagate southward covering most of the waters N of 25N W of 55W and E of the Bahamas by this evening. The cold front will reach from 31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning. At that time, seas of 12 to 16 ft are expected behind the front. Rough to very rough seas will continue to affect most of central and western Atlantic waters N of 2ON by Tue morning. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft by Wed night.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zone of Agadir near the coast of W Africa. The forecast calls for northeast gales to 40 kt, with severe gusts, from 29/18 UTC to 30/12 UTC at least. Seas are forecast to build to 15 or 16 ft with these winds by Mon morning.

For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues westward to 03N18W. The ITCZ then extends from that point to the coast of Brazil at 03S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 05W and 25W. Similar convective activity is S of 01N W of 25W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front stretches from South Florida to 24N90W where it begins to dissipate. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas prevail behind the front over the NE Gulf E basin E of 89W. Moderate NE winds are ongoing in the E Bay of Campeche with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with slight to moderate seas. A narrow line of clouds, with possible showers, is associated with the front, and now is reaching the Florida Keys.

For the forecast, the cold front over the SE Gulf will stall and dissipate early this week. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas across the NE Gulf will decrease today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail over the E Gulf through Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are forecast for the western half of the Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure building in the wake of the Atlantic cold front and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia. Winds of similar speed are ongoing across the Windward Passage, the lee side of Cuba and south of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Low-topped trade wind showers are moving westward across the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Thu night. This pressure gradient will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola. These marine conditions will likely prevail through Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

A strong cold front extends from 31N60W to South Florida. Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas follow the front, and these marine conditions are currently affecting the offshore waters N of the Bahamas and west of 63W. A well defined band of mainly low clouds is related to the front. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail. Farther E, a surface trough is analyzed and extends 31N57W to 21N58W. A weak 1017 mb low pressure is along the trough near 27N56.5W. An area of showers, with isolated thunderstorms, is ahead of the trough axis, covering the waters N of 20N between 50W and 56W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a strong 1042 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores. The associated ridge extends SW to near 50W. This system tightens the pressure gradient across the area and supports fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas extending from the NW coast of Africa to about 35W, including the Madeiras and Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will reach from 31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating over the SE waters on Tue. Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas are expected across most of the offshore forecast waters through midweek.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr