Special Features

Central Atlantic Gale Warning/Swell Event: A cold front is moving southward east of Bermuda and is now along 30N. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicated SW winds to minimal gale force within 90 nm ahead of the front. In addition to the gale force winds, buoy observations and altimeter satellite data indicated large N swell is following the front. The front will continue southward east of 65W through early this week, before eventually stalling and dissipating along 20N by late Tue. Winds will diminish below gale-force through this afternoon. Meanwhile, the swell will produce seas 12 ft as far south as 18N through Mon night, with highest seas near 30N around 23 ft. The swell will subside below 12 ft through mid-week.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front is moving across the west Gulf currently. Gale-force NW winds have developed in the wake of the front off Tampico, Mexico, and will develop off Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon. Rough to very rough seas prevail in the western half of the basin. The winds will diminish below gale-force tonight, while the rough seas will continue through Mon night.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings.

Monsoon Trough/Intertropical Convergence Zone

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Africa near 10N15W and continues southwestward to 01N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and extends to near the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 200 nm on either side of both boundaries and W of 10W.

Gulf Of America

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of America. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

A strong late-season cold front extends from 29N91W to 19N96W. Latest altimeter data depicts rough to very rough seas W of the front, while scatterometer/obs data shows strong to near gale NW winds in the same area (outside of the gale warning area). Fresh SE to S winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are noted across the central Gulf ahead of the front, and moderate to fresh SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident across the eastern Gulf. The moist southerly flow ahead of the front is sustaining areas of sea fog, and platform observations indicate visibility is 2 to 5 miles in these areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the northern portion of the front mainly N of 26N.

For the forecast, Gale-force winds will prevail off of Tampico through midday, and off Veracruz this afternoon. Winds there will diminish below gale force into Mon night, as the front reaches from Cedar Key, Florida to near Merida, Mexico, but strong winds and rough seas will follow the front across most of the western Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish through early Tue from west to east as high pressure builds over the southern Plains and the front moves southeast of the basin. Expect gentle breezes and slight seas Wed into Thu in all but the southeast Gulf, where moderate NW swell may persist into Wed.

Caribbean Sea

Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate strong to near-gale force winds off Colombia, while strong winds prevail in the Gulf of Honduras and across the Windward Passage. The observations also confirm fresh to strong E to SE winds across the basin, except for the eastern Caribbean, south of Cuba in the northwest Caribbean, and south of 10N off Panama and Costa Rica. These winds are due to a tight gradient between 1024 mb high pressure west of Bermuda, and lower pressure over northern Colombia. Altimeter satellite data and buoy observations indicate 9 to 12 ft over the central Caribbean, 8 to 10 ft over the Gulf of Honduras and off Belize, 7 to 8 ft in the Windward Passage, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted between Haiti and Jamaica and south of the Dominican Republic.

For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will continue to produce strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, the Atlantic Passages and the Gulf of Honduras through this afternoon, before the high pressure begins to shift eastward and winds gradually diminish through Thu. A cold front is expected to reach the NW Caribbean Tue morning, with fresh to locally strong northerly winds filling in behind it. The front will move eastward and stall from central Cuba to NE Honduras through Thu before dissipating.

Atlantic Ocean

A Gale Warning is in effect for the far NE Atlantic waters. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

In addition to the gale-force winds ahead of the cold front described in the Special Features section, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are noted near the front covering the area north of 24N between 20W and 59W. Farther west, 1024 mb high pressure is centered southwest of Bermuda near 30N70W. Recent scatterometer satellite data shows this pattern is supporting fresh to strong E winds near the approaches of the Windward Passage and north of Haiti. It also show E to SE winds in the Old Bahama Channel between Cuba and the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are evident over the tropical Atlantic, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Farther east, fresh N winds and rough seas are noted off Senegal. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh N to NE winds and large N swell follow a cold front extending from 25N50W to 28N66W. Moderate to large N-NE swell will dominate the waters E of 65W through Wed. High pressure southwest of Bermuda is supporting fresh to strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola and near the approaches to the Windward Passage, and fresh to strong S winds off northeast Florida, ahead of an approaching cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night into Tue. The front will generally stall from Bermuda to central Cuba by mid-week, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas.

Posted 59 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era