For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East-Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 10 percent.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg/Brown

Special Features

Strong Thunderstorms With Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola: A persistent surface trough extending southwestward from 25N64W to Puerto Rico is providing moist southerly flow across Hispaniola. Coupled with divergent flow south of a pronounced upper-level trough, strong thunderstorms are likely over and near Hispaniola Thu afternoon and early evening. These thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy downpours, increasing the chance for flash flooding, especially in hilly terrains and low-lying areas. Please refer to local weather service offices for more details on this event.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Freetown, Sierra Leone then extends southwestward to 03N17W. An ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 01S25W, then turns westward to northeast of Sao Luis, Brazil at 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from the Equator to 05N between 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of the ITCZ from 01N to 04N between 20W and 50W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high at the northeastern Gulf to south of Tampico, Mexico. Convergent winds near a surface trough at the west-central Gulf are producing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are evident at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will support mainly gentle to moderate E winds in the northeastern half of the Gulf, and moderate to fresh SE winds in the southwestern half of the Gulf through Thu. The pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf starting Thu night, causing E to SE winds to become fresh to strong across the entire Gulf through Sun night. Seas will build to 10 ft Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to between fresh and strong west of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section about strong thunderstorms and the potential heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.

Aided by divergent winds south of a mid to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms near Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, including the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong NE trade winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are found at the south- central basin, and near the ABC Islands and Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are evident near the Cayman Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Greater Antilles will sustain fresh to locally strong winds just north of Colombia, through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba through Thu night. Looking ahead, further strengthening of the high starting on Fri will also cause fresh to strong trades in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about the strong thunderstorms and potential for heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N58W to 25N65W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 80 nm along either side of this boundary. A persistent surface trough reaches southwestward from 25N64W to Puerto Rico. Widely scattered showers exist from 20N to 24N between 60W and 66W. A 1008 mb low pressure centered near 23N36W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring just east of the low from 22N to 26N between 34W and 36W. A surface trough stretches southwestward from 25N28W to 14N37W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong NNW to NE winds and seas of 10 to 12 ft are found just east of the aforementioned low from 23N to 26N between 35W and 40W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh with locally strong N to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft dominate waters north of 20N between 34W and 48W. Farther west, gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found north of 20N between 48W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 34W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are noted from 06N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 40W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen. Light to gentle with locally moderate southerly and monsoonal winds and 3 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to gradually weaken and dissipate to a remnant trough early Thu. Decaying northerly swell of 8-9 ft will subside this evening. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast Thu and Thu night. Looking ahead, a new cold front will merge with the trough and progress eastward, reaching from 31N57W to eastern Cuba on Sat morning, and then 25N55W to Hispaniola on Sun morning. Swell will push south of 31N with the front, resulting in building seas. A strengthening Bermuda High should cause widespread fresh to strong N to E winds west of the front beginning Fri evening through Sun evening.

Posted 1 day ago by NHC Forecaster Chan