Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to 1017 mb low pressure near 26N96W to near Tampico, Mexico. Strong to near-gale force NE to N winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, are northwest of the frontal boundary. Seas currently range from 5-8 ft along and behind the cold front. Conditions are forecast to improve tonight as the front weakens.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 03N17W to 02S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the coast of Brazil, from 03S to 05N between 32W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING and the associated cold front.

Ahead of the front, gentle to moderate E to NE winds prevail with 3-5 ft seas. A surface trough analyzed in the Bay of Campeche may cause winds to locally pulse to fresh to strong speeds.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the cold front as it moves southward across the northern Gulf through Mon. The front is then expected to stall from the Florida Straits to southern Texas Mon night. On Tue, the western portion of this boundary will gradually dissipate over the central and western Gulf, while the eastern portion will resume moving southward into Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. In the wake of the front, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu.

Caribbean Sea

Moderate or weaker trades prevail across the Caribbean waters, with locally fresh trades possible in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, the southern tip of Hispaniola, and within Atlantic Passages in the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin, with locally higher seas within Atlantic Passages in the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds through Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds may develop Tue night and Wed across the Windward Passage and at the lee of Cuba associated with a late-season cold front moving across Cuba.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak surface trough is across the western Bahamas and eastern Straits of Florida. High pressure centered along 31N dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, providing for gentle to moderate trades across the waters. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast this afternoon. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon afternoon, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by Tue afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish Tue night as the front stalls and dissipates along 22N by late Wed. High pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda in the wake of the front. Large N swell may linger near the dissipating front Wed into Thu, including waters near the Windward Passage.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney