Florida’s “jumbo jet economy” is expected to do better than the rest of the nation in the upcoming years — though there are a couple of caveats, according to UCF economist Sean Snaith.
Snaith — the director of UCF’s Institute for Economic Forecasting — released his latest forecast for the state on Thursday morning.
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According to the forecast, the huge influx of people into the state is set to keep GDP and job growth above the national average through 2027.
“Florida is going to keep cruising at a higher altitude than the rest of the country,” Snaith predicted. “That’s because the ‘twin engines’ of a robust labor market and population growth are propelling us forward.”
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However, this population growth could have other consequences.
Snaith warned there could be “some turbulence” thanks to record-high consumer credit card debt in the state, which averaged at a 21% interest rate.
The reason for this, he explained, is that the cost of living has outpaced wage growth in the state for over two years. Because consumers are expected to spend less heavily in the near future, this could open them up to a “financial shock.”
“Florida should enjoy the ride through these economically friendly skies with seatbelts fastened — just in case,” Snaith said.
Other highlights from Snaith’s forecast are as follows:
- Housing: Thanks to high mortgage rates — a product of high inflation and Federal Reserve policy — housing might not be as big of a driver in the economy over the next few years. Existing homes have seen higher sales prices, and the number of new homes being constructed is on a downward trend.
- Job Growth: In 2024, a nationwide slowdown in the economy is expected to decelerate job growth. The year-over-year growth in Florida hit 5.7% in 2022, though growth rates are expected to dip toward 0.6% by 2027.
- Population: With many “baby boomers” hitting the end of their careers, the state will see more retirees and job-seekers moving in.
- Personal Income: Growth is predicted to average 3.6% throughout 2024-2027. During this timeframe, Florida’s average growth is set to be around 0.8% higher than the national average.
- Economic Expansion: Florida’s economy will continue to grow at an estimated rate of 2.5%, largely thanks to the influx of new people. However, this growth will:
- slow to 3.3% in 2024
- slow to 2.2% in 2025
- rise to 2.5% in 2026
- slow again to 2.1% in 2027
To read Snaith’s full forecast, click here.
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