Florida Gov. DeSantis takes jabs at New York over fleeing residents. Is he right?

Earlier this week during a Winter Haven news conference, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis made several jabs at states like California and New York.

While the briefing was set to discuss infrastructure and job growth in the region, DeSantis brought up the topic of fiscal management — both at the national and state level.

“We’re spending this year less money than we spent last year. You’re not seeing that anywhere else, where they’re actually reducing spending,” DeSantis said. “And we have the lowest footprint of government state workers per capita in the entire United States of America.”

During his speech, DeSantis raised an anecdote about a recent invitation to speak at The Economic Club of New York.

“I’m like, ‘Well, you know, I’ve probably got to go up (to New York) to talk to some of the future Floridians because a lot of these people are moving down here,” he said. “Now, I’m not asking them to move, but they’re moving!”

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However, DeSantis pointed out that the New York meeting was actually scheduled to be held in Palm Beach, Florida — a fact that sparked laughter from the crowd.

DeSantis recounted his address at the meeting, claiming that the secret to Florida’s success in recent years stemmed in part from a “cheat code.”

“All I have to do is watch what California, Illinois and New York do, and then do precisely the opposite,” he explained. “And usually it turns out pretty good.”

The governor then launched into a series of criticisms aimed at New York’s fiscal management,

“New York state now, they have millions fewer residents than we do in Florida,” he proclaimed. “New York used to be the most popular state 50 years ago, then California. But New York had always had more people than us until relatively recently. And so we have over 23 million, they have about 19.5 million. And so even with millions more residents, the state of Florida’s budget is less than half of the budget of New York state.”

Is DeSantis right about New Yorkers moving to Florida?

Since DeSantis first came into office in 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau has reported the following migration estimates between New York and Florida:

Based on the data, it appears as though there has been a disproportionate influx of New Yorkers coming into the Sunshine State. In fact, Florida was one of the top destinations for New Yorkers nationwide. As such, DeSantis appears to be correct on that count.

But what about nationwide? Looking at the numbers again, the volume of people moving out of Florida or New York to other parts of the country is much closer:

Per the estimates, both states are largely even when it comes to people moving out.

However, DeSantis claimed that Florida’s population was booming, while New York’s was dwindling. One more glance at the data reveals whether that’s true:

As DeSantis said, the state’s population eclipsed 23 million for the first time ever last summer. Meanwhile, the USCB pinned New York’s population at just shy of 20 million at that same point in time.

And while New York’s latest population dips have been among the worst in the nation — especially in areas closer to New York City — the Empire Center for Public Policy reports that the state’s population is being bolstered by a large influx of undocumented migrants as Texas sent busloads into the state back in 2022.

So why are New Yorkers moving out of their home state en masse?

According to USA Today in 2023, Florida’s more lenient policies during the COVID-19 pandemic seemed to be a big draw for many, which aligns with the notable bump in moves after 2020.

In addition, the state’s business-friendly climate has attracted many more companies, which means that many workers are going to follow after them.

But perhaps the biggest draws for New Yorkers are the weather and lower cost of living — at least by New York standards.

However, that might not be the case for long.

What are the drawbacks?

It turns out that New York isn’t the only source of people moving to Florida, and the swarms of new residents coming into the Sunshine State have been driving up the cost of living.

While this means that GDP and job growth are set to grow above the national average through 2027, the cost of living has begun outpacing wage growth in the state, according to UCF researchers.

Because consumers are expected to spend less heavily in the near future, this could open them up to a “financial shock.”

“Florida should enjoy the ride through these economically friendly skies with seatbelts fastened — just in case,” reported Sean Snaith, the director of UCF’s Institute for Economic Forecasting.

Where is everyone else coming from?

Per the latest USCB data, the full list of states with residents who moved to Florida in 2023 is as follows: