ORLANDO, Fla. – Something to be thankful for this Thanksgiving: the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving meal is down!

The American Farm Bureau Federation is out with its annual estimate showing the average price dropped 4.5% to $61.17 for a feast for 10 people, down from $64.05 in 2022.

So what’s driving down the price, and is that cost accurate?

News 6 went to three grocery stores in Central Florida: Aldi, Walmart and Publix to see who’s serving up the biggest savings. To be fair, we compared all the prices on the same day: Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2023.

Twelve items are on the Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving menu. We used their estimate for miscellaneous ingredients, but priced out everything else. For each item, we tried to get as close to the size they used and look for the brand with the best deal.

AMERICAN FARM BUREAU FEDERATION ESTIMATES

• 16-pound turkey: $27.35 or $1.71 per pound (down 5.6%)
• 14 ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $3.77 (down 2.8%)
• 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.50 (down 4.9%)
• Half pint of whipping cream: $1.73 (down 22.8%)
• 1 pound of frozen peas: $1.88 (down 1.1%)
• 1 dozen dinner rolls: $3.84 (up 2.9%)
• Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.95 (down 4.4%)
• 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.44 (up 3.7%)
• 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.74 (down 2.6%)
• 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $3.97 (up .3%)
• 1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $.90 (up 2.3%)
• 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.10 (down 18.3%)

GRAND TOTAL: $61.17

What we found at stores around Central Florida

WALMART SUPERCENTER

• 16-pound turkey: $15.68 or $.98 per pound
• *14 ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $2.48 (we only found a 12-ounce bag)
• 2 frozen pie crusts: $2.98
• *Half pint of whipping cream: $2.78 (we only found a full pint)
• *1 pound of frozen peas: $1.96 (this is for two 12 oz. bags)
• 1 dozen dinner rolls: $1.28
• Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.95
• *30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $2.58 (we found a 29 oz. can)
• 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.02
• 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $2.64
• *1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $1.96 (we found 16 oz. of carrots and a full stalk of celery)
• 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $1.50

* = different size

GRAND TOTAL: $42.81

ALDI

• 16-pound turkey: $20.32 or $1.27 per pound
• *14 ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $1.50 (we found two 6 oz. boxes)
• 2 frozen pie crusts: $2.19
• *Half pint of whipping cream: $4.69 (we only found a quart)
• *1 pound of frozen peas: $1.90 (this is for two 12 oz. bags)
• 1 dozen dinner rolls: $1.25
• Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.95
• 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $1.89
• 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.01
• 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $1.69
• *1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $1.94 (we found 16 oz. of carrots and a full stalk of celery)
• 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: .99

* = different size

GRAND TOTAL: $45.32

PUBLIX

While comparing prices at Publix, a store employee approached News 6 and told us their turkey sale would begin the following day on Thursday, Nov. 9, 2023, from $2.59/lb. to .69/lb., which would have a major effect on the overall price.

• **16-pound turkey: $41.44 or $2.59 per pound (SALE PRICE .69/LB. = $11.04)
• *14 ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $2.50 (we found one 12 oz. box)
• 2 frozen pie crusts: $4.29
• *Half pint of whipping cream: $3.15 (we only found a full pint)
• *1 pound of frozen peas: $2.79 (this is for one 15 oz. bag)
• 1 dozen dinner rolls: $3.89
• Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.95
• *30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.70 (we found two 15 oz. cans)
• 1 gallon of whole milk: $4.65
• 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $3.27
• *1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $3.99 (we found 16 oz. of carrots and a full stalk of celery)
• 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: 2.99

* = different size

** = sale price difference

GRAND TOTAL: $81.61

WITH THE TURKEY SALE PRICE $51.21

Had we shopped around and bought our turkey on sale from Publix along with the cheapest items at Walmart and Aldi, our overall cost could have been even lower at $34.12.

SHOPPING AT MULITPLE STORES:

• PUBLIX 16-pound turkey: (SALE PRICE .69/LB. = $11.04)
• ALDI *14 ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $1.50 (we found two 6 oz. boxes)
• ALDI 2 frozen pie crusts: $2.19
• WALMART *Half pint of whipping cream: $2.78 (we only found a full pint)
• ALDI *1 pound of frozen peas: $1.90 (this is for two 12 oz. bags)
• ALDI 1 dozen dinner rolls: $1.25
• Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.95
• ALDI 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $1.89
• ALDI 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.01
• ALDI 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $1.69
• WALMART/ALDI *1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $1.93 (we found 16 oz. of carrots at Walmart for .98 and a full stalk of celery at Aldi for .95)
• ALDI 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: .99

GRAND TOTAL $34.12

Gathering around the table for a Thanksgiving dinner won’t take as much of a toll on your pocketbook this year compared to 2022, but the meal still reflects historically high costs.

This is the 38th year that the American Farm Bureau Federation’s has conducted the annual survey. It provides a snapshot of the average cost of a classic holiday feast for 10.

The 2023 estimate is a 4.5% decrease from last year’s record-high average of $64.05, but a Thanksgiving meal is still 25% higher than it was in 2019, which highlights the impact high supply costs and inflation have had on food prices since before the pandemic.

Turkey prices are driving the drop in overall cost this year. The price of the turkeys are expected to be down by about 20%.

Barent Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, says last year’s bird flu outbreak led to record high prices-- not just for turkeys, but also eggs. He cautions that prices in the future could soar again.

“We didn’t have as many backyard flocks as we do now, that was something that really changed when COVID hit was a lot of people got interested in backyard poultry production, and that has dramatically increased the spread of avian influenza,” Nelson said.

According to the Farm Bureau, in recognition of changes in Thanksgiving dinner traditions, the Farm Bureau price survey also includes boneless ham, Russet potatoes and frozen green beans, in an expanded menu. Adding these foods to the classic Thanksgiving menu increased the overall cost by $23.58, to $84.75.

This year’s national average cost was calculated using 245 surveys completed with pricing data from all 50 states and Puerto Rico. Farm Bureau volunteer shoppers checked prices in person and online using grocery store apps and websites. They looked for the best possible prices without taking advantage of special promotional coupons or purchase deals.

The AFBF Thanksgiving dinner survey was first conducted in 1986. The informal survey provides a record of comparative holiday meal costs over the years. Farm Bureau’s classic survey menu has remained unchanged since 1986 to allow for consistent price comparisons.

Regional Averages

AFBF analysis revealed regional differences in the cost of the meal. The cost for the classic meal was the most affordable in the Midwest - $58.66, followed by the South - $59.10, the West - $63.89, and the Northeast - $64.38. The expanded meal (classic meal plus boneless ham, Russet potatoes and green beans) was the most affordable in the Midwest - $81.83, the South - $82.61, the West - $87.75, and the Northeast - $88.43.

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