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Odds increase for tropical rain to move into area by month’s end

Monitoring an area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea

ORLANDO, Fla. – The weekend forecast looks fine! Saturday will feature plenty of sunshine with highs reaching 95 degrees inland and upper-upper 80s along coastal spots. Dry air aloft will keep rain chances virtually non-existent today with a chance for an isolated sprinkle.

Heat index values are expected to reach 100-107 degrees across the area.

Heat Index

Sunday will start off pleasant and dry, hotter as we go through the afternoon with highs climbing into the middle to upper 90s.

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The rain chances increase over southern counties to 30-40%. Quick downpours are possible with a few thunderstorms. As we go into next week, changes build in the forecast due to the potential of a tropical system forming.

Rain chances

Turning to the tropics, Invest 93L continues to show signs of organization. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted the development area with a 90% chance in the next 48 hours, then a 90% chance in the next seven days, as of 1:45 p.m. Saturday. Please note that the video at the top of this story was recorded ahead of that update.

Long-range models do show further development as it moves northward in the next several days over the eastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Atmospheric conditions look conducive for further tropical development.

Tropical Models are not in agreement as to where the center of this potential tropical system will go due to the fact that a defined center is not there. As we go through the weekend, a tropical depression is looking more probable, but whether it strengthens into a tropical storm or stronger will be determined as we get closer to Sunday or Monday. As of now, the Big Bend area and Florida Gulf Coast could see the greatest impacts later this week.

Nonetheless, tropical moisture is expected to ramp up rain chances beginning on Tuesday and lasting through Wednesday or Thursday with accompanying strong, gusty winds. Check back frequently for updates.

Models

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