ORLANDO, Fla. – We are in the final stretch of the 2023 hurricane season, but there are indications the season won’t end quietly.
The window for development with the disturbance near Florida and the Bahamas is quickly closing. Regardless, this system will be pushed away from the U.S. and back toward the Central Atlantic.
The second area, over the Caribbean, bears watching.
Models are currently split whether the potential system will continue due west toward Nicaragua and Honduras or get pulled up into the Gulf or Southwest Atlantic.
GFS Ensembles give the system a better a chance to lift north while the European models favor the due west track into Central America.
It appears as if a ridge of high pressure will build across the Yucatan Channel over the first few days of November.
This entity is important because if the ridge builds as model trends would suggest, a turn north toward the Gulf or Atlantic would be extremely unlikely and the system would continue west toward Central America.
If the disturbance were to speed up or slow down it could enter a different steering environment, however. Conditions overall are favorable for development in the Caribbean.
Central American Gyre
Heading deeper into November, the Central American Gyre will be a focal point for late season development. The Central American Gyre is a broad area of low pressure that typically develops both early and late in the season.
On occasion, clusters of storms get flung out into the Eastern Pacific, Caribbean, Bay of Campeche or Gulf of Mexico and develop into tropical systems.
During the first few days of November, development out of the Central American Gyre appears to favor the eastern Pacific.
Hurricane season officially runs through November. There are only two names left on the list, Vince and Whitney.
If all names are used up, a supplemental list of names will be used to complete the season.
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