ORLANDO, Fla. – It’s been a busy year in the tropics to date. Fortunately, with the exception of Category 3 Hurricane Idalia, most of the storms have stayed out to sea.
Typically, once the calendar flips to November there is a sharp decrease in tropical activity throughout the Atlantic basin.
Last year, of course, Hurricane Nicole made landfall in Florida during the month of November.
The main area to watch during the final month of hurricane season, however, is the western Caribbean.
A phenomenon known as the Central American Gyre, a broad area of low pressure that typically develops both early and late in the season, becomes more prolific.
This is a focal point for increased showers and thunderstorms that could eventually consolidate into a tropical system near Central America.
Dying cold fronts also make their way into the southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean and can also be a focal point for tropical development.
Currently, there is still ample energy to fuel tropical systems. A metric known as tropical cyclone heat potential measures the potential fuel for tropical systems by taking into account the depth of warm water.
Most of the western Caribbean remains in the very high category.
For the first half of November this region will have to be watched for tropical development but gradually through month, the western Caribbean appears to become less favorable for development.
Hurricane season officially runs through November. There are only two names left on the list, Vince and Whitney.
If all names are used up, a supplemental list of names will be used to complete the season.
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