ORLANDO, Fla. – El Niño has been all the rage this winter, leading to a colder and more active weather pattern for the state of Florida. It is becoming increasingly likely, however, that by the peak of hurricane season, La Niña will return.
In short, La Niña typically brings a more active hurricane season.
Wind shear tends to back off and thunderstorms become more prolific in the Atlantic basin during a La Niña season.
Tropical systems have a harder time organizing when wind shear is present.
Given other factors —water temperature and moist air — tropical systems can materialize.
The current forecast from the Climate Prediction Center gives a 74% chance of La Niña developing by the August-October timeframe.
It is important to note that it could take some time for the La Niña effects to respond to the changes in the atmosphere once the flip occurs.
What is even more concerning, though, is the fact that sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean and main development region, the area between the Lesser Antilles and Africa, are running above-normal.
Long range-model guidance suggests an active Cabo Verde season, long-track storms originating from tropical waves off Africa, and entering the Caribbean Sea. The green on the map below represents higher-than-normal rainfall for August, indicating the potential for more storms.
It’s still too early to know where steering currents could set up.
Colorado State University, one of the most respected seasonal hurricane forecast entities, will release their forecast for the 2024 hurricane season in April.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release their initial forecast just before the season officially begins in June.