Colorado State issues its most active hurricane season forecast. Here’s the prediction

ORLANDO, Fla. – Forecasters at Colorado State University on Thursday released their prediction for the 2024 hurricane season.

The university expects 23 named storms, 11 of which are predicted to become hurricanes, with five of those becoming major (at least category 3 and 111 mph winds).

The 2024 prediction is the highest April forecast ever released by CSU, which began seasonal tropical forecasting in 1995.

An average season consists of 14 named storms, seven becoming hurricanes and three becoming major. While rarely impacted by landfalling tropical systems, CSU is widely respected in tropical meteorology.

The 2024 hurricane season will feature a La Nina weather pattern, which tends to enhance tropical development in the Atlantic Basin by promoting thunderstorm development and decreasing wind shear. Wind Shear is detrimental to the development of tropical systems.

Higher impact tracks

CSU is forecasting higher-than-normal probabilities for storms tracking within 50 miles of the U.S. coastline.

For Florida specifically, the university is forecasting a 96% chance for a named storm to get within 50 miles of the Sunshine State. They are forecasting a 75% chance for a hurricane and a 44% chance for major hurricane to do that. Averages for Florida are 86%, 56% and 29% respectively.

With the shift to La Niña from a strong El Niño in 2023, there is a higher probably for the season to be more impactful. With few exceptions last season, Idalia etc., most of the storms remained out to sea.

There is a distinct change in where storms tend to track, however, in a La Niña season that directly follows a strong El Niño.

There is no way to forecast exactly where a storm will make landfall months in advance. It is always good to be prepared.

ACE Forecast

Accumulated cyclone energy or ACE is the measure of the energy used by a tropical system once it achieves tropical storm status. The university is forecasting an ACE value of 210. The average ACE value is 123.

‘They always say that’

Colorado State University actually forecasted a slightly below normal season for 2023. In reality, it was above normal.

While it’s true that they (meteorologists) have predicted above-average seasons of late, the reality is that those predictions have come to fruition. The last below-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin was 2013.

It’s important to note that just because your area didn’t get hit, doesn’t mean it wasn’t an active year. Even in a quiet year, it only takes one storm and its always best to be prepared no matter what the seasonal outlook is.

NOAA and the National Hurricane Center will release outlooks in late May.

Hurricane season officially begins June 1.

Colorado State will update its forecast June 11. There is a chance for the numbers to go up as the university went under most computer model guidance for the 2024 hurricane season.