Here’s how Hurricane Hunters help improve storm forecasting

Model accuracy improves after Hurricane Hunter missions

ORLANDO, Fla. – You might have heard of the Hurricane Hunters. They fly into some of the most dangerous, powerful storms. Those flights provide forecasters critical information to help you prepare and stay safe before its too late.

“We now try to get the aircraft into the storm as early in their lifecycle as possible,” National Hurricane Center director Michael Brennan said.

There’s a reason why those spaghetti models start out all over the place and then eventually coverage on a similar solution: better data.

“And when we have aircraft data, that makes the models forecast of the track and intensity of the storm 10-20% better,” Brennan said.

“Just by me flying, I take off, the aircraft starts gathering very sensitive weather information,” said Maj. Alex Boykin, pilot with the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters. “That comes both from the aircraft sensors and my forward doppler radar in the nose.”

Data is also gathered from the dropsondes being dropped into the storm and a wing SFMR (Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer) to record what is happening on the ocean surface.

There are two different types of aircraft flying in and out of storms collecting critical data. The first one, the C-130 from the U.S. Air Force. The second is on the NOAA side, the P3. It’s also collecting critical data by dropping instruments but also recording the storm with its tail radar.

“That’s going to take similar to like a CAT scan of the storm and they take that vertical profile and the imagery directly into the environmental models.” said Lt. Cmdr. Christopher Wood, pilot with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Hunters.

And once that data starts flowing, model accuracy improves.

“Once the storm gets over land, they have a lot of radar stations and other ways to get that data but while it’s offshore, aircraft are the main way that we’re able to get that data,” Woods said.

Remember, models are always guidance not gospel and you should really take them with a grain of salt, especially until that critical data from the Hurricane Hunters gets ingested into them.

Still, always consult the official National Hurricane Center forecast and, of course, News 6 when making decisions.


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