ORLANDO, Fla. – Hurricane Beryl is defying statistical and climatological odds as it moves into and through the Caribbean. The question is what happens with the storm after it moves through the Caribbean.
While it’s too early to know for certain where Beryl tracks, there are trends to watch.
It appears very unlikely that Beryl will directly impact Florida. A large and expansive upper-level high pressure system is expected to develop over the Deep South. This will bring heat for the holiday weekend to the South, but it will also steer Beryl west through the Caribbean.
This will also likely protect Florida from Beryl lifting north early.
Beyond the Fourth of July, the area of high pressure will nudge to the east. Between this movement and a dip in the jet stream coming out of the Rockies, Beryl will may have the tendency to begin a turn north after impacting the Yucatan peninsula.
Because of this, those across parts of the north Gulf Coast and especially west Gulf Coast, Texas to Louisiana, will want to keep a close eye on how Beryl progresses. If Beryl speeding up would favor a more westerly track into Mexico while a slower Beryl would allow for a more northerly track.
When hurricanes are stronger, like in Beryl’s case, the upper level pattern dominates steering. This is because the extremely tall thunderstorms that make up the hurricane.