ORLANDO, Fla. – Hurricane Beryl is entering the Caribbean with a projected path south of Greater Antilles.
While Beryl, which has broken three long-standing Atlantic hurricane records, will likely stay away from from Florida, parts of the Gulf Coast will need to watch the storm closely beyond the Fourth of July.
Another disturbance, designated Invest 96L is following in Beryl’s footsteps. Over the next few days, the disturbance could take a path similar to what Beryl is currently taking.
There was very high forecast confidence for where Beryl would track in the short term due to a building dome of high pressure. This is the feature that will likely protect the Sunshine State from any direct impacts from the storm.
This feature will likely break down somewhat after the Fourth of July which will lead to some uncertainty as to where the trailing disturbance will end up. Currently models are in good agreement that the secondary system will move through the central and western Caribbean.
While this system does not pose an immediate threat to Florida, there could be a better chance of the system lifting north earlier with that dome of high pressure sliding away from the southeast U.S. and a dip in the jet stream developing over the Rockies.
This would all be happening during the second week of July so it is difficult to say to say where exactly steering features may set up at the time the storm is in the western Caribbean.
The system could miss its ride north all together and meet up with a large dome of high pressure building to the storm’s west. This would help to keep the storm suppressed in the Western Caribbean.