ORLANDO, Fla. – There are signs that the Atlantic is trying to break free from its extended, and expected, slumber.
The National Hurricane Center on Monday continues to highlight a disturbance over the central Atlantic.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for slow development as the disturbance approaches the Greater Antilles and Bahamas later in the week. Eventually, a tropical depression could form in this general area.
There are two scenarios for the general track of this disturbance.
Scenario 1: Faster organization/stronger
The quicker the disturbance organizes, the more north and east it will tend to track.
It will round the base of the Bermuda high. In this scenario, a trough, or dip in the jet stream will aim to weaken the western edge of the steering high pressure systems.
This will help to lift the system north, driving it near the Bahamas and the Atlantic Florida coast.
At this, point it would likely remain offshore thanks to the dip in the jet stream, but it is too early to tell for sure as the system has not yet developed.
Scenario 2: Slower organization/weaker
If the system stays unorganized for longer, it will have a better chance to be pushed near the Greater Antilles and possibly into the Gulf of Mexico.
The environment in the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico is much more conducive for development, which could allow for the system to get stronger in the long term.
Model Guidance
Remember, models are guidance and not gospel. They will continue to flip-flop as data is scarce in the middle of the Atlantic.
Currently, the European and Canadian models favor scenario 1.
The GFS and Icon models favor scenario 2.
The Icon model did a tremendous job with the track of Hurricane Beryl, for what it’s worth.
At this stage in the game, with limited data, ensembles are better to look at rather than the deterministic models posted above. Each member making up the ensemble has different initial conditions put into them that can help forecasters determine a range of solutions rather than one outcome.
The more members favoring a solution, the higher the probability that solution will actually happen.
The European ensembles are heavily favoring scenario 1, with just a few members going west.
The GFS members remain uncertain as to if anything even develops.
The timeline for this would be the upcoming weekend.
Looking beyond this disturbance, the Atlantic could become favorable as a whole beyond the month’s second week.
Currently, the activity is hanging out in the Pacific, typically a precursor to Atlantic development. The reason for increased storms in the Pacific is the phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can help enhance or suppress tropical activity.
For the last several weeks, along with significant plumes of Saharan dust, the Atlantic has been dominated by the suppressed phase of the MJO.
The enhanced phase of the MJO will be passing through the basin by the middle of the month likely aiding in more development.