ORLANDO, Fla. – The disturbance designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 by the National Hurricane Center likely won’t develop as the center of the system is on land.
This was designated as a potential tropical cyclone because it had the potential to meet the meteorological definition of a tropical cyclone. Tropical cyclones are knowns as tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.
Impacts would have been the same whether or not it officially received a name.
End of the month
There are a number of theories as to why the last six weeks have been quieter than expected, but one of them has been stability.
A few others have been record high pressure over Greenland and the orientation of the monsoon trough over Africa leading to tropical waves exiting Africa too far north for tropical development.
All of these this is great news, however, things may change over the next week or two.
La Nina, which has also come on slower than anticipated has started to come on strong as of late. This will help to force up more thunderstorms on the Atlantic side.
The phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, MJO, is also likely to enter the basin by the end of September. This cluster of thunderstorms helps to promote rising motion when it enters a region. Rising air is needed for thunderstorm development.
During the last week of September, after the 23rd, attention will turn to the western Caribbean for potential development.
Ensembles have been hinting at possible development for the last week or so.
It is impossible to tell where a storm, if any develops, would go at this stage of the game – just know that that part of the basin looks favorable for development.
October also looks to be very favorable for tropical development through about the middle of the month.
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