ORLANDO, Fla. – The early forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Helene are reminding a lot of Floridians of the projected path for another recent hurricane, Ian.
The 2022 hurricane was forecast initially to come ashore along the Gulf Coast of Florida before eventually trending toward the Big Bend.
[PHOTO BELOW: Cone of Ian in 2022]
Ian would then take a turn to the east, making landfall in Southwest Florida, near Cayo Costa.
So, could Helene take a similar path to Hurricane Ian and cut across Central Florida?
It’s possible but unlikely.
A large dip in the jet stream helped lift Ian out of the Caribbean and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. That dip then forced Ian east into Southwest Florida.
Similarly, a large dip in the jet stream is pulling Helene north and will also keep it in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, however, this time the dip in the jet stream is expected to cut off.
This cut off low will then dig into the Deep South, lifting Helene further north toward the Big Bend and Panhandle rather than forcing it east into Southwest Florida.
[RELATED: Here’s what’s steering the likely Gulf of Mexico hurricane, Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, to Florida]
The only way Helene would come east, say toward Tampa and through the I-4 corridor, is if model guidance has incorrectly forecast the dip in the jet stream. If this happens and the upper-level flow does not cut off, the upper-level flow would be able to force the storm more east than currently forecast.
Nudges to the east will still be possible, but a sharp turn to the east with the center of the storm cutting through the I-4 corridor is unlikely.
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