ORLANDO, Fla. – Our temperatures are forecast to dip below 60 degrees for many overnight Wednesday night as our first strong, fall cold front passes through the Florida peninsula.
Some will wake up to temperatures in the low to mid 50s to start their Friday eve! Once you factor in the wind chill from the breezy conditions we’re faced with the next few days, you get the perfect recipe for fall hoodie and sweater weather.
But the question on the table today is just how rare are these temperatures for the state of Florida?
All across social media you see the word “RARE” plastered on just about every weather enthusiast page. On average, during the middle portions of October, Florida tends to sit around the 80-85 degree mark. So while these temperatures are below average, this is not as rare as some of those digital voices you may come across in your scrolling may lead you to believe.
Typically around Oct. 15, the state of Florida will receive its first genuine cold front. The cooler air mass originates from up in Canada, and sweeps southeast across the country until it marches its way over the peninsula. While the Canadian air is fresh, our temperatures will sink as low as upper 40s toward northern Florida. Then what occurs is a process called “modification.”
What is modification? Let’s take our Canadian polar air mass for example.
It comes from the cooler provinces to the north of the Canadian and U.S. border. It is naturally much cooler in that region almost year round because of its high latitude and proximity to the poles. When the jet dips south and drags a ton of that colder air with it, now is the time where it usually comes to our doorstep here in Central Florida.
But, if it comes from a generally colder part of the world and parks over a generally warmer region, this is when modification can take its course.
The once cool, polar air from Canada begins to change. It transitions to a more mild, humid air mass since it is now at a much lower latitude marinating over our beautiful Sunshine State, where we typically look for warmer temperatures and humidity through the calendar year. Basically, it transforms to match the new environment it finds itself in. Almost like “weather adaptation.”
As this modification goes on, we will see the remainder of October back at around-average temperatures: highs in the low to mid 80s most afternoons and overnight lows into the upper 60s with much less humidity than we’d faced during the summertime.
A gorgeous opportunity to let the holiday season roll in, take advantage of getting outdoors or getting your fire pits situated for when the even-cooler temps start to come down as we go through November and December.
So! These potent doses of cooler air across our viewing area are entirely NORMAL and actually right on schedule! They also help create a shield for us Floridians to avoid any more tropical troublemakers that may be blooming late in the hurricane season.
For example, Invest 94L is forecast to run face first into this dome of cool, high pressure.
When it does, it will either ricochet into the north Atlantic or dive south missing Florida by a large margin. Excellent news for those still recovering from Helene and Milton alike. With this bubble of cooler air over Florida, we’re not looking at any tropical threats in the next week or two.
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