ORLANDO, Fla. – The first unnamed hurricane to make landfall in November occurred in the year 1861. It carved a damaging path very reminiscent of Hurricanes Charley and Ian. The next occurred nine years after, crashing into Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula as an unnamed hurricane November 1870.
Rafael is an anomaly among anomalies the 2024 hurricane season has produced. We’ve already set a few more records since its development and now, we may be witnessing one of the biggest pieces of hurricane history very soon.
With the formation of Rafael and its intensification to hurricane status late last night, we’ve set the record for number of hurricanes to form beyond the climatological peak of the season, which is Sept. 10. The previous record was a total of six hurricanes, set way back in 1870. The irony after reading the first sliver of information, right?
Now we look to something even bigger than the number of storms during a certain period. Unfortunately, it has to do with landfall.
I will preface this by saying it is NOT coming to Florida nor is there any potential for a sudden turn toward our viewing area. Believe it or not, this is part of the record we’re about to set.
In recorded history, Florida typically receives a landfall by nearly every named storm to form in the month of November.
Rafael is now forecast to turn west once it enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico. An enormous breath of fresh air and a sigh of relief for all of us.
Once it turns west, the current pattern driving the path of the storm could direct it southwestward from there into the Bay of Campeche and maybe into a Mexico landfall. This is unheard of during every recorded November in hurricane season history.
Looking at the graphic below, you can see for yourself, no named storm has ever taken a westward path in the Gulf of Mexico during the month of November. We have never seen any landfalls in Texas or the central portions of Mexico itself.
But where we stand currently, Rafael could attempt a brief window of restrengthening before crashing into the coastline of Mexico that borders the Bay of Campeche. This would add a brand new and very odd looking line to our historical track graphic.
The 2024 hurricane season may not have accrued the total number of named storms predicted before the season kicked off back in June. But one thing is for certain, the destructiveness makes it among the top five most costly seasons to date.
We did not realize a ton of sloppy or out-to-sea storms as we witnessed last hurricane season, but rather quality tropical cyclones strengthening in rapid fashion before a devastating landfall.
Last, but certainly not least, 2024 has set numerous records from Beryl all the way down now to Rafael.
We may not be done quite yet other. Stick with your Pinpoint Weather Team for all your latest tropical weather updates as we hopefully prepare to close out the season altogether within the next couple of weeks.
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