As of Nov. 30, the 2024 hurricane season came to a close.
Our last named storm for the year ended with Sara’s dissipation over Central America before a remnant low managed to escape over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. What started out as a potential fourth hurricane for Florida ended with a pleasant dousing of much-needed rainfall.
The same cannot be said for the season having passed before Sara’s arrival. As a result, central Florida residents are likely still feeling the effects and impacts of the hurricane season. Personally, I’ve seen several instances of damage and debris still lining the neighborhoods, roads, and sidewalks of many areas in my neck of the woods.
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So why would we already start talking about the NEXT hurricane season? What good does that do us? It’s December, Christmas has yet to arrive, and we aren’t even in the year 2025 quite yet.
There is a method to this madness, rest assured...
We have several different long-range climate models at our disposal as meteorologists.
I will immediately add the disclaimer, there is a sensitive margin of error and trust you can put into these things. It goes without saying, approaching a forecast that is 5-10 days in advance has a high bit of uncertainty, let alone looking at data approximately 6-8 months from now!
Tread lightly, and use with caution. BUT, we have these pieces of computer data for a reason, and that’s to help provide you lovely viewers with very early general outlooks.
In this case, I’ve already decided to crack open some of that info to start best generating early working theories for what we may face come the kick-off of hurricane season June 1, 2025.
To supplement the use of these climate models, we’ve also pooled a TON of key takeaways and lessons learned from our very anomalous and off-the-rails 2024 hurricane season.
As a result, looking this far out, comparing the data, using our best judgment, and referring to other scientific pathways to examine what went wrong and what went right helps us not only spread the word sooner but improve as a forecaster all the way around. That’s the name of the game in meteorology. A constant learning curve, and hungry to get better.
With that being said, looking at the data, we are already noticing a NIGHT and DAY difference between what’s happened and what’s projected to be coming.
A few of the key variables we look at our obviously ocean temperatures, wind shear, and available moisture.
While our climate models can’t give us accurate representations of these intricate pieces of data this far out, we can get a general layout of what the big-picture weather and oceanic patterns may look like.
Believe it or not, a couple of other areas we tend to monitor when forecasting for a hurricane season involve semi-permanent pressure systems. The term semi-permanent means they may weaken or strengthen periodically, and change locations from time to time, but in general, a high pressure or a low pressure exists in that typical part of the globe year-round.
We also look at ocean currents and different oscillations not only in our Atlantic Ocean basin but across other parts of the world!
The ENSO, El Nino Southern Oscillation, which tells us whether we will be in an El Nino or La Nina pattern, is one of several examples.
Based on what we have at this point in time, it certainly appears the evolution between 2023 and 2024 will likely continue into 2025.
This is such stark differences between what actually occurs between June and the end of November. 2023 was characterized by recurving systems, very few reaching land, and only one hurricane landfall.
2024, as we’re well aware, involved several strong storms forming much closer to home in the Western Caribbean or Milton having formed from within the Gulf of Mexico.
2025 might be a different song and dance from either of those two previous seasons. Could it still be impactful? Absolutely, but the current tone sets the stage for potentially different landfall sites, and a different type of tempo or repetition when dealing with organizing named storms.
I won’t get too into the weeds THIS EARLY. It’s difficult to pinpoint storm intensity and impacts when a system is headed your way, let alone from over half a year out.
But the puzzle pieces are already starting to come together to create the big picture. It’s up to us at the Pinpoint Weather Center to decipher these codes and messages before the season’s arrival to best equip you for what to expect as we rock through the next season together.
