ORLANDO, Fla. – For the first time in several months, Central Florida is pinpointed for a marginal chance of severe weather as the next cold front passes through.
We’ve been discussing this for a few days now, and I do believe if there is potential for severe weather on Wednesday, and it will be at its greatest during the mid-afternoon hours.
The primary driver for our rain chances and thunderstorm potential has a lot to do with timing. In previous discussions, we highlighted how the front coming in faster or slower could be a detriment to its ability to produce some much needed rainfall for our viewing area.
Where we stand currently, a large majority of our high resolution future radar models suggest the front will be passing us during storm “prime time,” the relatively warmest part of the day.
We typically reach our hottest temperature around the lunch hour, before we start to drop off with a decrease in sun angle above us by about 3 p.m.
Another kicker was just how much warm, moist air we’d be able to grab hold of over the Florida peninsula.
Models have been dialed in keeping us in the low 80s, with dew point temperatures much more favorable than they have been for the development of rainfall. The higher the dew point, the greater the energy available for storms to fire. This also drives our heat index up as well.
Finally, when looking at the large scale, the trough that’s helping push this cold air down into the Southeast is taking on what’s called a NEGATIVE tilt.
I know that may sound like weird weather jargon, but this simply describes the direction the trough is pointing. If it’s coming down from the north toward the southwest on a map, this would be a POSITIVE tilt. Extending from the north into the southeast in this case, is a NEGATIVE tilt. You probably guessed what a neutral tilt looks like, which is simply straight north and south.
A negative tilt is something we forecasters look for, because it suggests the fast movement of a cooler air mass, which also means we’re seeing a greater funneling of warm air out ahead of it. The collision between warm and cold air is an excellent catalyst for storms and severe weather.
We’ve had warmer subtropical air being dragged northward over our area for the last couple days. This is part of the reason you may have seen some fog when you stepped outside in the morning. The air is also noticeably heavier than it was, say, Saturday and Sunday.
The Pinpoint Weather team will be monitoring the progress of this cold front as it works its way into Central Florida as early as sunrise Wednesday. The greatest risk for severe weather will begin shortly after the sun comes up.
We’ll be watching to see if we get enough sunlight to reach the ground and add more energy to the storm equation. This could be a limiting factor: clouds building in before the front’s arrival will limit just how much of a nudge the sun and afternoon warming give the leading edge of our cool pool sweeping Southeast.
Regardless, our area will likely receive some much needed rain.
