ORLANDO, Fla. – While snowflakes will be unlikely in Central Florida, part of the Sunshine State could soon be in for a round of winter weather.
A strong cold front will move through the Deep South and into the Florida peninsula on Sunday, delivering unusually cold air to the region.
On the heels of the cold, confidence is growing that moisture will string out along the north Gulf Coast. With that said, it is very rare to get wintry precipitation to fall in Florida and several things have to come together perfectly.
The main ingredient you need for snow is cold air in place at the time precipitation starts falling. Oftentimes in the South, bitter cold, of course, is lacking.
A pure blast of Arctic air prior to the system developing could set the stage for some snow and ice in North Florida early next week.
Cold will start to spill down the Florida peninsula on Jan. 18.
High temperatures in Central Florida may struggle to climb out of the 40s on Monday.
Early next week, moisture looks to develop around Texas and move across the South. If the cold stays locked in, some of that moisture could fall as snow, freezing rain or sleet through North Florida.
While computer models may shift on the severity of the cold or placement of the precipitation, the initial injection of cold air is the key player to get wintry weather in Florida.
At this stage of the game, ensembles are the best guidance tool to use in forecasting. Ensembles are made up of a bunch of model members run with slightly different initial conditions. This accounts for uncertainty in the data.
When the probability of an event occurring is high in the average of the ensembles members, confidence is higher in the event actually happening.
Twenty percent of the ensemble members suggest an inch of snow in the Florida Panhandle is possible.
Even so, an event like that is rare in Florida, but it appears at the very least flakes or ice pellets will be possible in North Florida.
There is even an outside chance, depending on how this shakes out, for some sleet northwest of I-4.
Stay tuned. And bundle up!