ORLANDO, Fla. – There is a ton of weather information out across the internet. You can pull up all kinds of charts, data, statistics, climate modeling, records, graphics, the WORKS! But the question posed today is, what does it take to actually forecast the weather? I mean, actually forecast it, down the surface pressure and temperature day-to-day.
Anyone with a camera and a microphone can take to the web and proclaim they’ve built a forecast for your area or for a specific region of the country. But does this make them a certified meteorologist? What really is weather prediction?
Weather prediction begins FAR from reading computer models. Sure, most of us out there, including myself, love to crack open the latest model data. Especially when certain models (yes, looking at you GFS) will pop out some pretty outlandish but entertaining solutions.
Computer models are virtually 1/8 of the big puzzle that is weather forecasting. During my time in Air Force weather, when we began what’s called our “initial skills training” we focused primarily on real-time information. What is the atmosphere currently doing, how does it feel, what’s it look like, how is it behaving?
Once we learned how to identify certain characteristics in the local area, we could broaden our horizon a bit and start examining full states, regions, and eventually the whole country. We developed a skill set called “pattern recognition.”
That’s what I’d like to focus on in this article, if you’re still here reading! Especially because it revolves so heavily around winter time. Right now, social media is ablaze with the southern snow storm we experienced. The self-proclaimed meteorologists on your Instagram or TikTok apps continue to hammer home “historic cold coming” and my personal favorite “this winter storm just got worse.”
But yet, here in Florida, we’re rapidly approaching what could be record WARM high temps. There’s a big reason why, and a lot of it has to do with pattern recognition. While the folks who don’t quite have the level of experience as some degreed and seasoned meteorologists are reading model run to model run, you take a glance at the current pattern in place across the hemisphere and you know - snow ain’t coming.
Pattern recognition in its simplest form is literally taking a mental snapshot of what the layout of our atmosphere looks like, and immediately labeling phenomena from the top down.
Let’s break down our upper air chart here. We have a ridge building over the western U.S., and a weak, broad ridge smothering us in the southeast. Immediately, this means warming. Which is precisely what we’re continuing to experience in Central Florida. Then we have the extension of a trough and area of low pressure over the central US. Behind it, colder air comes down, and out ahead more warmth is driven north.
We can also safely predict without looking at anything else, there’s likely lots of rain, showers, and possible storms right out ahead of our low. This is our most unstable or turbulent sector.
Naturally, we have even more data at our disposal to look at, and THEN we can fall forward on computer models to see what they’re thinking as these features are projected forward. But in reality, you can absolutely draw a forecast up for your neighborhood, your city, your state just by looking at real-time data or what’s happening in the NOW.
If your favorite weather communicator immediately jumps on the computer models when talking your weather, they may want to go back and doublecheck a few things before Mother Nature tosses a couple curve balls in their direction.
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