ORLANDO, Fla. – As of Sunday, the prediction on the table is another six additional weeks of the winter season per Punxsutawney Phil.
Phil rose from his burrow just in time to catch his shadow which suggests we’re faced with a longer winter before spring’s arrival.
The question for us in Central Florida is—are we being punked? We’d just announced on here winter is over for us in the Florida Peninsula.
Despite Phil’s overarching prediction (which some would argue is more valued and trusted than your favorite meteorologist), the Climate Prediction Center and your Pinpoint Weather team are still holding steady with Florida remaining generally warm as we push through the new month of February. These warm conditions could extend even into early March if long-range ensembles were to verify!
The latest 30-day temperature outlook has indeed arrived from the Climate Prediction Center. Looking at the graphic above, Florida and much of the Southeast are blanketed by shades of orange and red. This suggests we will stay in the warmer temperatures, above the average for this time of year.
Long-range computer models do depict upcoming winter storms and cold blasts from Canada. However, when you look closely at the image below and breakdown the temperature and thickness gradients associated with each individual storm system, none of our global models (reliable or not) indicate Floridians will receive fresh cold air from up north.
Here’s a look at the latest from our American model, the GFS. The chart you’re seeing is valid for Feb. 19!
Granted, dragging the model this far out in time could be treacherous, as models love to dramatically change when going beyond the five or so day time frame. But despite being so far out in time, the general trend remains the same—the Southeast doesn’t realize another cold invasion through the next several weeks.
The primary reason why pertains to our jet stream. When we’re under zonal flow, west to east moving jet streams, we don’t see any incredible plunges of cold air that may attempt to work their way through Florida. Each global model, every ensemble, every teleconnection chart suggests we won’t see an aggressive pattern setting up for the foreseeable future.
This keeps a large majority of the coldest weather at bay from us here in town.
Now, this wouldn’t be meteorology if we didn’t advise THINGS COULD CHANGE. But for the last week and some change, models have been fairly dormant in terms of strong winter storms, arctic blasts from up north, and snow.
There will likely be a return to winter conditions for many of the Lower 48. Where we stand currently though, Florida can take a breather as we don’t anticipate any freezing conditions, ice, frost, let alone snowfall in the foreseeable future.
Temps should remain in the comfortable range of mid-60s to low-70s as we tread through the second month of February. Pending Mother Nature doesn’t decide to throw us all for a loop... and you know just the place to look if that comes down the road!
Get today’s headlines in minutes with Your Florida Daily:
