ORLANDO, Fla. – A severe weather outbreak is underway to our west. A quasi-linear convective system is producing damaging straight line winds, a few sporadic tornadoes, and dangerous hail.
I’ll immediately note, this is NOT what’s expected for Central Florida. But given the parameters we have in play, and the punch this feature has, we should be on guard for some stronger storms. A few power outages are possible in gustier conditions, and models do suggest a very low-end funnel cloud or tornado risk.
As of their morning update, Storm Prediction Center has elevated the chances of severe weather for our northern viewers to a level 2 out of 5. Previously, we were all situated beneath a level 1 shot at some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.
The counties under this more widespread and general risk for powerful storms include: Alachua, Marion, Putnam and Flagler counties. A level 2 out of 5 risk area increases your odds of seeing damaging weather activity in your neighborhood. Basically, more than just one or two severe warned cells.
Thankfully, in comparison to Monday and late Monday night, models seem to have trended away from a more pronounced tornado risk. The potential still exists, but it isn’t nearly as cut and dried. I would highly encourage folks in Flagler, Volusia, Brevard and areas of Polk into Lake/Sumter counties to watch the progress of this front as it comes down.
Mid-to-late Wednesday morning, if you reside in Alachua, Marion, northernmost Lake, Sumter, Flagler, Volusia and the upper periphery of Seminole counties, you will likely be feeling some very gusty winds before the front arrives. Models indicate anywhere between 25-35 mph gusts are anticipated.
The further south you go, we’ll still realize some fairly gusty winds throughout the day. But these should remain between 20-30 mph on occasion.
Our in-house future radar model seems to agree with a few of the other high resolution thunderstorm models available, with the general idea the strongest storms could be impacting Marion, Lake, Seminole, Volusia and Flagler counties.
This seems to be the consensus for where daytime heating and a bit of encouragement from the warm, Gulf stream waters off the coast could provide enough fuel to get the stronger storms firing.
Timing for all this is very consistent across models.
The line of showers and storms will begin to work into Central Florida around 11 a.m. to 12 p.m. on Wednesday and persist until just before sunset. The bulk of impacts for the Orlando metro area and surrounding locations will likely be around 1-3 p.m. Our southernmost counties will say goodbye to the cold front just before the sun is set around 4-6 p.m.
Some key takeaways are: not everyone will see bad or strong thunderstorms.
The cold front comes across our neighborhoods in a straight line, with the potential for a stray shower or pocket of rainfall out ahead of the boundary or even just back behind it. It appears the greatest risk for the damaging and somewhat dangerous weather is confined to our northern folks, especially in the northeast quadrant of Central Florida.
We will be providing round-the-clock updates on the activity as it comes together and rocks through. Stick closely with your Pinpoint Weather team as we quickly ride this out together!
