ORLANDO, Fla. – The severe weather outbreak of the year SO FAR is happening right now.
Thousands, if not millions, of people were put in harm’s way late Friday night as the first phase of dangerous weather unfolded over parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, and through the Midwestern states.
As of today, this threat has shifted to phase two, where already long-track and damaging tornadoes have occurred in Mississippi and Alabama.
As we work our way through tonight and into tomorrow, the dynamics responsible for producing these significant weather players will start to play a role on Central Florida’s weather.
Here’s the time table and what we’re pinpointing as far as threats for our area:
By around the noon hour, we’ll start to see these thunderstorms and the main band of squall action start to move from the Florida big-bend into the northern peninsula. Around 1-2 p.m., Gainesville and the rest of Alachua County will start to feel the storms working in. Some of these could produce damaging winds and knock out power.
Later on into the mid afternoon the rest of our northern viewing counties will receive pockets of heavier rainfall, likely frequent lightning, and gusty winds.
We cannot rule out the potential for some embedded supercell activity as these storms tap into what energy we have present over Central Florida coupled with our temperatures that will be trying to breach the 90-degree threshold.
Between 6-9 p.m., the threat will be directly overhead our four corners counties and the Orlando metro area/Orlando International Airport.
Models indicate the potential for 50-60 mph winds within some of our more organized and discrete cells. Discrete means they are off on their own, not mixed in or caught up in a “crowd” of other thunderstorms trying to feed off the local environment and get stronger.
Imagine trying to bust out your greatest dance moves on the dance floor. It’s much easier to show off your style on your own versus battling shoulder to shoulder with a bunch of other people.
The winds above our heads higher up in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere can also help strengthen the thunderstorms that do hold together as they traverse the local area. As the updraft rising into the sky gains strength, it accelerates faster. When these updrafts meet winds in the horizontal as they rise vertically, it can create spin. This is called shear. There’s plenty of it from the I-4 corridor and north.
So Floridians we need to keep our heads on a swivel, as some cells may try to go tornadic and spin up a funnel or two like we saw the other day.
By about 10 p.m. and approaching midnight, a large majority of us will be all clear. Maybe a lingering shower or two affecting lower Osceola and Brevard counties closer to the east coast, but nothing significant is forecast to remain.
Cooler temps and drier air will rapidly build in behind this feature, resulting in a pleasant start to the new work week.
Down the road, I am pinpointing a few other areas to watch for some enhanced Central Florida weather as we get into the backend of March and approach the calendar start of spring.
