ORLANDO, Fla. – As of 1 p.m. this afternoon, we find ourselves rushing to the home page of National Hurricane Center.
The first tropical weather outlook of 2025 has hit the board, with the infamous yellow lemon centered over the subtropical Atlantic.
NHC gives this a very low chance of developing into anything more than a sloppy area of low pressure over the next 48 hours, and they specifically mentioned additional development is not expected through the next week.
[EXCLUSIVE: Become a News 6 Insider (it’s FREE) | PINIT! Share your photos]
You’re probably saying, “it isn’t hurricane season, is it?” We are indeed still in March, and while this may seem completely out of left field, these are precisely the types of setups we watch over Atlantic waters that produce these one-off rogue spins.
This feature started to rotate after being left behind in the Central Atlantic at the tail end of an old cold front traversing the entirety of the oceanic basin. If the back end or southern edge of a front is left to fester over relatively warm water, these occasional spin-ups can and do happen.
In fact, during the first month or so of the hurricane season and traditionally the very tail end as we approach Thanksgiving, we watch for these configurations over the Gulf or elsewhere close to home for exactly this reason.
Since we’ve had several robust storm systems push across the United States in recent days we’ve had plenty of leftover vorticity in the atmosphere. The low pressure areas we encounter here over the CONUS don’t stop once they hit the Atlantic, they keep flowing eastward as far as the jet stream will carry them.
The water temperatures over the subtropical Atlantic aren’t the most impressive right now, but are warm enough believe it or not to support some additional strengthening of the thunderstorms closest to what would be considered the features “center of circulation”. This is what NHC watches for, as a previously fully “frontal” low pressure cyclone attempts to make the transition to tropical.
I will also add, this is not necessarily a sign whatsoever or a direct correlation to what to expect during the heart of the bona fide hurricane season.
