ORLANDO, Fla. – Those who like to look at various weather models during hurricane season often wonder what one is the best.
While no model is gospel, some models do perform better than others. The data used to rank the models is from a 2021 and 2022 National Hurricane Center verification report.
Popular models used for hurricane forecasting are:
GFS: NOAA’s Global Forecast System model
EURO: The European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) global forecast model
HMON: Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic regional model (initialized using GFS data)
HWRF: Hurricane Weather and Research Forecasting regional model (initialized using GFS data)
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office’s global forecast model
Best models for storm track
In 2022, no one model stuck out above the rest, according to the report. There were clear winners in certain time ranges, however.
In the short range, the American GFS was the most accurate. In the middle range, the HMON was the winner. The HMON (Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic Model) is one of the hurricane center’s hurricane models.
The HMON at times challenged the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center during this range.
For long range, beyond four days, the GFS ensembles were the best.
Ensembles are used to predict a range of outcomes rather than a single forecast. Different conditions are put into the members of the ensemble to account for the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.
In 2021, the GFS was the most accurate model followed by the European.
Overall, the official forecast was the most accurate in terms of forecast track accuracy.
The NHC also relies heavily on consensus models. The TVCN is a popular choice for tropical track forecasting.
Best models for storm intensity
While the forecast track accuracy continues to improve, intensification forecasting remains the most challenging.
For intensity, your best bet is to look at the hurricane models rather than the more well-known European or American GFS. These two models, especially the Euro, make oftentimes poor intensity forecasts.
Best intensity model: In 2022, the HWRF (Hurricane weather research and research forecasting regional model) performed the best. This model initializes with GFS data.
Earlier this year, the National Hurricane Center released its brand new model; the HAFS. HAFS stands for Hurricane Analysis forecast system and provides forecasters with high resolution track and intensity data.
It is important to note that no one should use a computer model to make decisions. Only use the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
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