ORLANDO, Fla. – We’re nearing the start of the upcoming Atlantic basin hurricane season.
The pre-season forecasts are indeed rolling out steadily, especially after having passed April 1 on the calendar.
But so far, none of the information or the data we have to examine from this distance away is as cut and dried as it has been the last few years. What does that mean for us?
First things first, a number of the predictions we have at our disposal are a lot more tame than the year prior. Gone is the HOT water absolutely boiling across the tropics like we saw throughout 2023 and 2024.
Could this mean we see less overall action, even during the peak of the season from August through October? Some truly believe so.
The eastern tropical Atlantic is now ranked eighth warmest on average in recorded history. The water temperatures are approximately 3-4 degrees celsius cooler than they were this time last year.
Most of our warmth, as we’ve discussed in previous articles, seems to be loaded up in the subtropical Atlantic and actually close to home off our peninsula coastlines. Especially the Gulf to our west; the water temperatures have been far above what they typically are for the winter and the spring since before the previous hurricane season even wrapped up.
This ocean “configuration,” as it’s called, basically how the ocean temperatures are arranged when looking at the Atlantic as a whole from the coast of Texas to the western shores of Africa, could be a good thing for us. It could also be a bit of a double-edged sword.
I’ll explain!
But before I do, I also want to talk about an enormous common denominator when discussing the hurricane season, ENSO — the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Whether we’re in El Niño or La Niña.
A lot of us meteorologists have truthfully never seen quite the spread in our climate model data when trying to make at least a modestly skilled assessment of where the Pacific ocean temperatures could be from June to November.
The European seasonal model, for example, predicts a warm neutral to weak El Niño setting up as we head toward May and into June.
The Climate Forecast System, continues to call for a cool neutral set up. This essentially means we aren’t warm enough or cold enough to be classified as an El Niño or La Niña. We’re on an even playing field more or less.
Then when you take a look at individual members of our different ensemble computer models, the margin of error grows extravagantly!
Remember - when we use terms like “ensemble,” it’s a group or individual members of a model that grab hold of whatever data we give to them and create their own end solution. Think of it like a meeting at work or at home. You’re asked a question, given a task and how you’d accomplish it. Each individual person in the room may do it a little differently. That’s an ensemble model!
Looking at it from a far different perspective, models and forecast data aside, there could be a bit of psychology at play here as well. Especially when looking at some of the different sources and how they’re expecting the season to unfold.
Last year was forecast to be a BLOCKBUSTER hurricane season. Every sliver, slice, piece of data you could chomp on pointed toward multiple named storms and several impacts. We did in fact receive a multitude of impacts. But the total named storms and a large portion of the storms that did form weren’t quite living up to that expectation.
So some may be taking a more frugal and careful approach to the 2025 season.
Some key takeaways to keep with you as we move through the rest of April and begin the home stretch in May include:
Even if we’re expecting a lesser amount of total storms for the season, doesn’t mean one of them won’t reach our area. Neutral ENSO in the Pacific tend to favor southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast landfalls, and it’s been proven statistically through years of observation.
NOW is the time to look over your preparations and your plans if a storm were to lock on to Central Florida. It’s like preparing for a marathon, or training for a sport. You spend weeks in advance getting yourself physically and mentally prepared. You never wait until you’re two or three days away from your race or your competition. The hurricane season is no different.
Lastly, given how much warmth we have built up close to home, we could see more Debbie-, Helene- and Milton-type situations. This means we only have a couple days to get ready if a storm were to develop. The Atlantic itself may not perform if it doesn’t warm up beyond where it sets now (which it most likely will), but the winter and this spring has already shown us there’s a lot of energy at the ready just off our immediate coastline.
As you begin to glance over how you intend to prepare for the hurricane season, here at your Pinpoint Weather Center we’ll be rolling out an abundance of wonderful content for you to keep with you.
The National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans begins next Monday. We fully intend on bringing you the best information possible from the conference, and more, to keep you and your loved ones safe ahead of anything Mother Nature may try to sling our way.
