ORLANDO, Fla. – Forecasters at Colorado State University on Thursday released their prediction for the 2025 hurricane season.
The university expects 17 named storms, nine of which are predicted to become hurricanes, with four of those becoming major (at least Category 3 and 111 mph winds).
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University, “one reason for the active forecast is the unlikelihood of El Niño.”
Usually El Niño tends to favor a less active season across the Atlantic Basin due to an increase in vertical wind shear in this zone. The stronger the shear, the less opportunity storms have to develop.
When it comes to the latest sea-surface temperatures across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic, Klotzbach said that the “average ocean temperatures are similar to what we typically observe with active hurricane seasons”.
An average season consists of 14 named storms, seven becoming hurricanes and three becoming major. While rarely impacted by landfalling tropical systems, CSU is widely respected in tropical meteorology.
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025 with a 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average is 21%) and a 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Texas (average is 27%).
For Florida specifically, the university is forecasting a 92% (86% average) chance for a named storm to get within 50 miles of the Sunshine State. They are forecasting a 65% (56% average) chance for a hurricane and a 35% (29% average) chance for major hurricane to do that.
In April 2024, Colorado State University issued its most active preseason forecast with 23 named storms, 11 becoming hurricanes and five becoming major hurricanes.
You may recall, the season started off very quickly with Hurricane Beryl. A significant lull in tropical activity ensued for the bulk of the peak of hurricane season.
The last week of September through the end of the season ended up being the most active in recorded history. Notable storms Helene and Milton formed during this time period.
2024 finished with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
While the Colorado State forecast was on the high side for named storms, they were perfect for the number of hurricanes and majors for the season.
In the era with better satellite technology to name storms out at sea, it is more important for these seasonal outlooks to pay closer attention to the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes forecast.
Colorado State does provide percentages for potential tropical impacts to land, however, it is impossible to predict where storms will go until they form.
It’s important to note that even in a “slow” hurricane season, it only takes one storm to make it a bad year and it is always important to be prepared.
NOAA and the National Hurricane Center will release outlooks in late May.
Hurricane season officially begins June 1.
